Notice: Function _load_textdomain_just_in_time was called incorrectly. Translation loading for the jetpack domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /mnt/stor08-wc1-ord1/694335/916773/www.tvhe.co.nz/web/content/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6131

Notice: Function _load_textdomain_just_in_time was called incorrectly. Translation loading for the updraftplus domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /mnt/stor08-wc1-ord1/694335/916773/www.tvhe.co.nz/web/content/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6131

Notice: Function _load_textdomain_just_in_time was called incorrectly. Translation loading for the avia_framework domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /mnt/stor08-wc1-ord1/694335/916773/www.tvhe.co.nz/web/content/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6131

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /mnt/stor08-wc1-ord1/694335/916773/www.tvhe.co.nz/web/content/wp-includes/functions.php:6131) in /mnt/stor08-wc1-ord1/694335/916773/www.tvhe.co.nz/web/content/wp-includes/feed-rss2-comments.php on line 8
Comments on: Fed cuts rates to 4.5%, has a GDP surprise http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2007/11/01/fed-cuts-rates-to-45-has-a-gdp-surprise/ The Visible Hand in Economics Fri, 02 Nov 2007 00:31:22 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Kimble http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2007/11/01/fed-cuts-rates-to-45-has-a-gdp-surprise/#comment-454 Fri, 02 Nov 2007 00:31:22 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/2007/11/01/fed-cuts-rates-to-45-has-a-gdp-surprise/#comment-454 http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm

Data tables on the right hand side may be the way to go. You could contact them directly and ask for more historic data.

The latest fall in response to the downgrades either means people are panicking over old news or that they didnt want to believe that old news and were waiting for the individual anaylsts to confirm the bad news.

]]>
By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2007/11/01/fed-cuts-rates-to-45-has-a-gdp-surprise/#comment-458 Thu, 01 Nov 2007 23:12:13 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/2007/11/01/fed-cuts-rates-to-45-has-a-gdp-surprise/#comment-458 Making it fall hard on top of the downgrade of course 🙂

Do you know where I could find the durable goods consumption index in the US?

]]>
By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2007/11/01/fed-cuts-rates-to-45-has-a-gdp-surprise/#comment-460 Thu, 01 Nov 2007 23:06:26 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/2007/11/01/fed-cuts-rates-to-45-has-a-gdp-surprise/#comment-460 Credit ratings are notoriously slow at reacting to underlying fundamentals, I was actually reading an article on that on Bloomberg yesturday.

Payroll data out tonight will sell it for me. Once I see how the payroll data we’ll have more idea about how strong consumer spending will remain, as the US acts pretty much like a ‘closed economy’ the movement in consumer spending will be danged important.

Notice that people realised that the Fed took a neutral tone on yesturdays meeting, making the DOW fall hard.

]]>
By: Kimble http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2007/11/01/fed-cuts-rates-to-45-has-a-gdp-surprise/#comment-459 Thu, 01 Nov 2007 22:50:50 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/2007/11/01/fed-cuts-rates-to-45-has-a-gdp-surprise/#comment-459 Credit downgrade of both BOA and Citi… BOOM! There go the financials.

I cant help feeling that the credit downgrades are simply repeating information we already have! Why are they a surprise to anyone?

Exxon is struggling to make money. Oil is approaching $100/b and Exxon is falling short of profit expectations. WTF?

]]>
By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2007/11/01/fed-cuts-rates-to-45-has-a-gdp-surprise/#comment-453 Thu, 01 Nov 2007 18:08:40 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/2007/11/01/fed-cuts-rates-to-45-has-a-gdp-surprise/#comment-453 The revaluation will be important. I suspect many of the firms would have revalued holdings based on a contingency of deliqiencies continuing from the current economic environment. The real question then is, to what degree will deliqiencies worsen if economic growth in the US slows.

I still feel that investors are willing to take on a significant amount of risk, and I can’t see that lasting in the long run. However, if growth keeps on sitting this strong there shouldn’t be any problem.

]]>
By: Kimble http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2007/11/01/fed-cuts-rates-to-45-has-a-gdp-surprise/#comment-457 Thu, 01 Nov 2007 06:38:26 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/2007/11/01/fed-cuts-rates-to-45-has-a-gdp-surprise/#comment-457 Sub-prime may get worse, but I reckon most companies with an exposure have realisticly revalued their holdings. It makes more sense to take one HUGE hit, than a couple small ones. One really bad result is disappointing, two is a trend.

]]>
By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2007/11/01/fed-cuts-rates-to-45-has-a-gdp-surprise/#comment-455 Thu, 01 Nov 2007 06:19:13 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/2007/11/01/fed-cuts-rates-to-45-has-a-gdp-surprise/#comment-455 My feeling is that they are trying to be extra careful, as they expect sub-prime to just get worse. I can’t see much shifting market sentiment except a war or a downturn in consumer spending.

I’d like to see how inflation is panning out across the world, that could well be next years issue

]]>
By: Kimble http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2007/11/01/fed-cuts-rates-to-45-has-a-gdp-surprise/#comment-456 Thu, 01 Nov 2007 06:16:24 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/2007/11/01/fed-cuts-rates-to-45-has-a-gdp-surprise/#comment-456 Weeeeeeee!

One thing to watch for is the default rates for the September and October 2006 vintage of sub-prime mortgages. This could be another shock to the system.

Could this rate reduction be preemptive? Is there much point in that at all?

]]>