jetpack domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /mnt/stor08-wc1-ord1/694335/916773/www.tvhe.co.nz/web/content/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6131updraftplus domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /mnt/stor08-wc1-ord1/694335/916773/www.tvhe.co.nz/web/content/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6131avia_framework domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /mnt/stor08-wc1-ord1/694335/916773/www.tvhe.co.nz/web/content/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6131Would it pay off in the long run? How long would it take the very sophisticated defensive strategies to adjust to this new tactic? They are the reason 4th down plays are becoming rarer.
Thinking about it, I dont think it would be a permanent advantage. It may not even last the season. You might get a few small gains out of it, but when it comes to the ‘money’ games at the end of the season, it is probably suicide.
]]>I agree that there’s probably a lot of behavioural psychology type stuff going on in the reactions of people to losing a game at the last minute. There’s a lot of loss aversion in the decisions made on fourth down, no doubt. However, if something pays off over the course of a season and the players’ incentives don’t encourage it then surely the incentives are wrong.
]]>Possession is EVERYTHING in football. A turnover is golden. A turnover with good field position is platinum.
He is asking them to make the higher variance play, even in situations where the turnover would be fatal (turnover in your own half with the scores tied). They probably arent making the play less because a geek suggested it was the statistically correct one. They are making it less because there is more at stake than there was several years ago.
There may be one scientifically determined best-play, but is the science taking into consideration fan disappointment? If a coach or a QB calls a running play on the 4th down, their decision making is called into question. Is it taking into consideration loss of confidence in the QB? (Which can cripple any team.)
Is it taking into consideration the players bonus structure? Is the running back going to miss his season bonus if he turns the ball over too much? (Dont underestimate the complexity of the reward structure in a professional sports team.)
The benefit of playing this more agressive, higher variance, style will come through over the course of a season or a career. In this respect, they are indistinguishable from a number of other things that got you to the Superbowl. Was it the more aggressive 4th down play that got you there? Or was it the 0.02 increase in the reaction time of your QB?
But if you balls up the 4th down play, the penalties are very easy to see.
Incremental gain vs catastrophic loss.
]]>