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Comments on: September quarter current account – GDP primer http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2007/12/20/september-quarter-current-account-gdp-primer/ The Visible Hand in Economics Wed, 09 Jan 2008 19:44:26 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2007/12/20/september-quarter-current-account-gdp-primer/#comment-638 Wed, 09 Jan 2008 19:44:26 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/2007/12/20/september-quarter-current-account-gdp-primer/#comment-638 Hi guys, sorry I haven’t been around I’ve been trying to write something on the precommitment value of management (to no avail 🙂 )

David, the revisions to GDP figures occur as sometimes real data does not appear for a few years, and as a result a bunch of figures in it are provisional. In this case most of the revisions were back in 2004, so nothing very interesting happened 🙂

Kiwi Trader, I agree that the RBNZ is pretty stuffed here, and a rate hike still looks likely. The NZ economy is not that weak, that is the US economy :).

Kimble, bunny rabbits are awesome, I’ll have a look over the article a bit later on 🙂

Oliver, I didn’t realise that people thought the economy was going to tank, all the forecasts are for reasonably strong growth. The reason for this is terms of trade shock, domestic consumption will tank but once dairy volumes and meat prices recover it will be all good. What is causing the BOP deficit is an interesting question. I’ll do a blog post on it at some point. However, people on the left and the right can blame the other side for it if they really want to 🙂

]]> By: Oliver Woods http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2007/12/20/september-quarter-current-account-gdp-primer/#comment-637 Tue, 08 Jan 2008 03:39:43 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/2007/12/20/september-quarter-current-account-gdp-primer/#comment-637 It will definitely be interesting observing whether there is going to be this downturn that everyone seems to be talking about this year. With this muddling of statistics, it honestly would not surprise me that if the Reserve Bank and Treasury started modifying statistics to meet their own forecasts :P.

As always, my institutional economic/mercantilist bones in my body shiver when I see the big balance of payments account deficit high as it always is.

Irrespective of inflation, minimum wage changes, tax cuts and such short term relatively cyclical issues and policy decisions, one really has to wonder from a realist perspective what years and years of balance of payments deficits are actually caused by, and what it means beyond numbers and statistics.

]]> By: Kimble http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2007/12/20/september-quarter-current-account-gdp-primer/#comment-636 Thu, 27 Dec 2007 23:58:22 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/2007/12/20/september-quarter-current-account-gdp-primer/#comment-636 A story you may find interesting and not just because it involves a bunny rabbit:

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/FF/2007/GCBF+Jan+2008.htm

]]> By: Kiwi Trader http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2007/12/20/september-quarter-current-account-gdp-primer/#comment-635 Thu, 27 Dec 2007 10:13:49 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/2007/12/20/september-quarter-current-account-gdp-primer/#comment-635 Its the inflation data in January that will be the interesting number.
That will remind the markets that the RBNZ has no room to move this year unless we get an across the board slowdown. That still looks very unlikely.
Cullen’s finger is on the spend button. But then Bollard’s finger is on the hike button. The die is cast.

]]> By: David Baigent http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2007/12/20/september-quarter-current-account-gdp-primer/#comment-634 Fri, 21 Dec 2007 09:28:44 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/2007/12/20/september-quarter-current-account-gdp-primer/#comment-634 Are the revisions of the National Account a rewrite of recent history to make the numbers more closely resemble what happened, or are they an exercise to make the actual situation a little less blameworthy..?

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