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Comments on: OCR review preview – June 2008 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2008/05/29/ocr-review-preview-june-2008/ The Visible Hand in Economics Fri, 30 May 2008 03:07:23 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Eric Crampton http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2008/05/29/ocr-review-preview-june-2008/#comment-1499 Fri, 30 May 2008 03:07:23 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/?p=400#comment-1499 Doesn’t credibility somewhat depend on perception that the guy in charge isn’t likely to make informal arrangements with Parliament that persistent breaches of the policy target agreement will not be punished? Institutions are really important, but absent having some kind of automatic rule that x quarters constitutes breach and brings punishment, you’ve got to have a guy who hates inflation at the top.

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By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2008/05/29/ocr-review-preview-june-2008/#comment-1498 Fri, 30 May 2008 01:13:44 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/?p=400#comment-1498 “If the RBNZ wants to get credibility back as an inflation-fighter, it has to get rid of Bollard”

I have great respect for Dr Bollard as an economist – however I do realise that he can be a touch dovish.

I think that ultimately the credibility of the RBNZ depends more on its institutional structure than who is leading it. If Dr Bollard was told that his sole mandate was inflation – and judged solely in that regard I think he would act very differently. After all, it is all about the incentive stipulated in his contract!

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By: Eric Crampton http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2008/05/29/ocr-review-preview-june-2008/#comment-1497 Thu, 29 May 2008 22:16:54 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/?p=400#comment-1497 I’d checked the numbers before posting; I’d been guessing that tradeables were up considerably compared to non-tradeables. I was surprised to see non-tradeable to still be above tradeable, though both are above 3.

You’re dead right that RBNZ has ignored its statutory mandate; it instead seems to be in collusion with the government to subvert its mandate. If the RBNZ wants to get credibility back as an inflation-fighter, it has to get rid of Bollard. I hope he’s quick to the chopping block if there’s a change in government.

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By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2008/05/29/ocr-review-preview-june-2008/#comment-1496 Thu, 29 May 2008 19:58:47 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/?p=400#comment-1496 Hi Eric,

I am very much in the same camp as you here – growth is not, and shouldn’t be part of their mandate.

However, when looking at what the Reserve Bank will do rather than what they should do it becomes obvious that the Bank places some weight on growth and “stabilisation” (a term I find a bit funny to use in the face of shocks to AS).

The funny thing is, non-tradable inflation is still over 3% – in fact its currently rising at a faster rate than tradable inflation. I have a bad feeling about New Zealand’s (and the worlds) inflation outlook.

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By: Eric Crampton http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2008/05/29/ocr-review-preview-june-2008/#comment-1495 Thu, 29 May 2008 16:39:06 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/?p=400#comment-1495 Why is RBNZ even worrying about risks to growth? That isn’t their mandate. I’ve re-read the 2007 Policy Targets Agreement. There’s a bit of blather about the government’s objective to provide full employment, but the only RBNZ link in that section is that price stability contributes to the goal.

We had five quarters beginning September 2005 where CPI exceeded the RBNZ target band. During that period, inflation was entirely driven by non-tradeables. This time round, it’s going to be harder ’cause import prices are helping to fuel CPI rather than attenuating the effects of domestic pressures. How many bouts like this beyond the targets threshold before the RBNZ loses credibility?

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