jetpack domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /mnt/stor08-wc1-ord1/694335/916773/www.tvhe.co.nz/web/content/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6131updraftplus domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /mnt/stor08-wc1-ord1/694335/916773/www.tvhe.co.nz/web/content/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6131avia_framework domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /mnt/stor08-wc1-ord1/694335/916773/www.tvhe.co.nz/web/content/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6131Not sure that I agree – the data releases over the next three months will be bad, but if the Reserve Bank forgets to mention inflation expectations things will be worse.
As long as they show that they are watching inflation, and that they will act, I’m happy – its all a story of credibility ultimately.
“A consumption-led recovery is not the best way to go about it. Unless it’s more output driven, all gains are illusory.”
It depends if the slowdown is the result of a sudden reduction in demand or an actual decrease in the countries productive capacity.
Demand was running too hot in the past – but the Bank fears that its turned too far to soon, and so it wants to help it on the way down, this is fine.
However, they have to be careful not to go too far – as you say, if the slow down is solely the result of drought and high petrol prices our actual natural rate of output is currently lower, which implies that efforts to “cushion it” on the way down will stoke inflationary pressures – maybe 😛
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