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Comments on: The great August/September consumer confidence rebound? http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2008/09/05/the-great-augustseptember-consumer-confidence-rebound/ The Visible Hand in Economics Mon, 08 Sep 2008 01:22:30 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2008/09/05/the-great-augustseptember-consumer-confidence-rebound/#comment-2371 Mon, 08 Sep 2008 01:22:30 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/?p=1051#comment-2371 Hi Phil,

Is that the graph that is found here:

http://www.thestandard.org.nz/?p=2964

I think the relationship he is getting at is the one between consumer confidence and votes for the incumbent party – generally, the more confident consumers are, the better the incumbent does.

As petrol prices also have a big impact on consumer confidence – changes in petrol prices should run around with voting share as well. However, I think the primary relationship is between consumer confidence and incumbent voting.

Generally, I think it is because when people feel bad about the economy they want a change to fix it – and as a result, the opposition will do well as they provide the “change”.

]]> By: Phil http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2008/09/05/the-great-augustseptember-consumer-confidence-rebound/#comment-2372 Mon, 08 Sep 2008 01:16:48 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/?p=1051#comment-2372 This graph looks suspiciously like it would track much closer to the Labour Party’s polling than the one Pierson put up on The Standard…

]]> By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2008/09/05/the-great-augustseptember-consumer-confidence-rebound/#comment-2370 Sun, 07 Sep 2008 22:09:07 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/?p=1051#comment-2370 “When someone in authority states that Aucklands population is going to increase by such an enormous number the rest of the population probably have a sense of that also”

I am sure that people do believe them – however, I am not sure that this would increase peoples one year ahead income expectations, which is where the increase in consumer confidence came from.

“Have you blogged about the advantages of increasing the population Matt? Is there an optimum number of people? Who benefits and are there losers?”

It is a very interesting issue – and hopefully I do get a chance to write something about it at some point.

]]> By: John http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2008/09/05/the-great-augustseptember-consumer-confidence-rebound/#comment-2367 Fri, 05 Sep 2008 23:34:37 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/?p=1051#comment-2367 When someone in authority states that Aucklands population is going to increase by such an enormous number the rest of the population probably have a sense of that also. So apart from immediate things (oil price etc) they perhaps factor it in?

Have you blogged about the advantages of increasing the population Matt? Is there an optimum number of people? Who benefits and are there losers?

]]> By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2008/09/05/the-great-augustseptember-consumer-confidence-rebound/#comment-2369 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 23:05:53 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/?p=1051#comment-2369 ““they” are predicting Aucklands population will increase by the size of Christchurch over the next 25 years so someone ( “they”) must be confident?.”

Sorry I don’t understand what you are getting at?

]]> By: John http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2008/09/05/the-great-augustseptember-consumer-confidence-rebound/#comment-2368 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 22:59:27 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/?p=1051#comment-2368 “they” are predicting Aucklands population will increase by the size of Christchurch over the next 25 years so someone ( “they”) must be confident?.
The big oil well is a hidden variable as the price falls it increases (in the imagination) and confidence increases.

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