I don’t actually have a problem with freeing up migration – the main constraints have to be infrastructural and social (given peoples propensity to form groups etc). I think we actually do a damned good job with immigration in NZ

“Why do people think citizens shouldn’t leave when (for instance) we have a globalised property market?”

I agree – why a free market for capital and goods but not for labour? I guess we have the same criticisms people hold for goods and labour – and also the fact that a big inflow of migrants could lead to people arguing with each other, or infrastructural issues. However, overall I think free labour markets is a way the world needs to head.

Indeed, I am actually doing migration forecasts at my work as we speak, and I’m check over some additional indicators (such as terms of trade) in order to get an idea of their significance in explaining recent movements.

“So is this just hot air or is something else going on here?”

I suspect it is hot air. Hot air is a great way to try and get money off the government – which is effectively the same as taking resources off everyone else in the economy 😛

“This is part of a free market for labour – skilled labour can move around. If New Zealand firms won’t pay higher wages to retain skilled labour then the skilled labour will leave. If the firm is unwilling to pay a higher wage it must also be in its best interest – overall, the industry shouldn’t be there in the first place.”

Yes. That’s the theory. The practice is that NZ employers won’t pay the international market rate yet still bitch and moan about not being able to the hire people they need. So is this just hot air or is something else going on here?

A possible clue to understanding why people leave New Zealand might be to check the correlation between our outward migration numbers against other measurements; consumer confidence, housing affordability and so on, to see if there’s an obvious pattern. This only takes care of the ‘push’ factor, there may also be a ‘pull’, but I guess it would be a useful starting point.

Very true, very true.

“I think the mass of people leaving NZ is an indication that expectations of NZ’s future are not good; that the standard of living in NZ is expected to be worse than somewhere else very close by.”

In this case the question is – is policy causing this relative decline, or is it simply a result of fundamental factors. If it is the result of fundamental factors we have to ask, can policy actually help?

I don’t think we can conclusively take rising migration outflows as evidence of policy failure – which is the impression I glenned from both Kiwiblog and the Infometrics article.

Well, there are the arguments of people taking their social investment with them when they go. But I dont want to get into that argument.

A mass of people leaving somewhere may not be a bad thing, but it can be a symptom. Having a mass of people running out of a public restroom is not a bad thing, but it does indicate to anybody watching that perhaps they should hold on until they get home.

I think the mass of people leaving NZ is an indication that expectations of NZ’s future are not good; that the standard of living in NZ is expected to be worse than somewhere else very close by.

Is there good reason for people to have these expectations? If they are correct, is there a good reason why our relative standard of living is going to fall? If there is, then people leaving is rational and there are no policy implications. If there isnt, then there are.

If people are leaving because the global labour market is stronger and there are gains from trade to be made then this is fine – isn’t it? Does a person going overseas to benefit themselves actually hurt us – what is the externality?

So National supporters will think it is because of Labour policies, and Labour supporters will think it is because of Nationals “failed policies of the past”. Socialists will think it is because the government doesnt spend enough, and libertarians will think it is because government takes too much.

But the fact remains that more people are leaving than can not be explained by population growth. We can assume that moving country is a big decision, so would have big reasons. The big reasons will be involving the big things in peoples lives, and people arent different enough that there are a huge number of big things in their life.

In modern society the biologically big things are sorted; food, shelter, mating. So they are likely to be the main reasons. So what is next?

We could start a list with family. Which is more likely, someone wants to leave to get away from family or someone wants to leave to join other family?

Next up might be security. Do people leave because they dont feel safe in NZ? Do they leave because they dont feel secure?

Next, lifestyle. Are people leaving because NZ has a shitty lifestyle? Doesnt sound right to me, but could be a factor for people that want the big city lifestyle.

Next, income. Are they leaving because they can get more or less overseas?

Although we dont know exactly why someone would leave, I think we can guess fairly well.