I don’t agree with this though. I think the average voter will see ‘negative’ press for the economic situation and blame the incumbent. Getting at what Matt was saying earlier re: spin, if National could successfully spin tax cuts as a good way of stimulating growth (and more particularly as a better way of stimulating growth than pumping it through the wasteful Govt sector) they could politically cash in on it.

Glad to see we agree on that issue.

Fundamentally, Labour has spun the issue of “the goodness of public spending” to hell and back. I don’t understand why people go on about National being the party of spin – when Labour is also filled with a bunch of overt propaganda.

Exactly.

I agree – I think that is the way many voters will take it.

Fundamentally, voters understand the fact that more tax cuts will require spending cuts.

I think National should try pushing the line that there are areas where spending can be cut without a large loss of service – put the associated loss in service to society in perspective. They have let Labour take control of the idea that “public spending is good”, they need to put it into perspective (or counter Labour’s spin with there own spin).

If the public actually knows the full trade-off and what it means, then I would trust them to choose the right party.

The PREFU shows a disastrous result for the country.”

My analysis is post pre-EFU, although I could have written it beforehand and it wouldn’t have been any different.

This is because tax cuts are a structural issue – and as today’s books didn’t tell me that the economy is structurally weaker my belief that tax cuts are affordable is no different.

I would go out on a limb and say the raw numbers in today’s result is not disastrous for the country. It is the policy of spending exceeding income for the next decade is a cause for concern – as this implies that there is no medium term fiscal balance.

I say “successfully” because that also needs to be taken in context of the economic situation.

But think about it from the point of view of an ordinary, non economist, new zealand voter. I think this could actually make things difficult for National, who will likely be wanting to cut back spending more than Labour, and people won’t like it.

The PREFU shows a disastrous result for the country.