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Comments on: Mis-reading confidence http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2008/12/08/mis-reading-confidence/ The Visible Hand in Economics Wed, 10 Dec 2008 03:39:26 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: 500th post, sort of « The visible hand in economics http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2008/12/08/mis-reading-confidence/#comment-3954 Wed, 10 Dec 2008 03:39:26 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/?p=2299#comment-3954 […] Comment! After seeing Adam Smith at the Inquiring Mind reach 2,250 posts here, I decided to check my own post number. I noticed that I hit 500 posts with this one. […]

]]> By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2008/12/08/mis-reading-confidence/#comment-3958 Tue, 09 Dec 2008 02:08:37 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/?p=2299#comment-3958 “He may be on the mark with this one. The question on right vs wrong direction for overall country also moved by much the same amount, and that is very much linked to change of govts historically.”

But if we dig deeper and look at the reasons why consumer confidence increased we see two things:

1) People feel like they have higher incomes now,
2) People feel that it is a good time to buy big ticket items.

I would attribute these movements to a slashing of the OCR and lower fuel prices.

If the confidence boost was solely based on the “outlook” for economic growth and own incomes it would be fair to pin this no the election – but those statistics did not improve. In fact the outlook for own income fell!

I should have made this more explicit in the post – I will keep that in mind 🙂

]]> By: dpf http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2008/12/08/mis-reading-confidence/#comment-3957 Tue, 09 Dec 2008 02:05:05 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/?p=2299#comment-3957 He may be on the mark with this one. The question on right vs wrong direction for overall country also moved by much the same amount, and that is very much linked to change of govts historically.

]]> By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2008/12/08/mis-reading-confidence/#comment-3955 Mon, 08 Dec 2008 23:04:12 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/?p=2299#comment-3955 I definitely pay attention to the data – fortnightly confidence readings are too good to pass up 🙂

]]> By: DG http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2008/12/08/mis-reading-confidence/#comment-3956 Mon, 08 Dec 2008 05:32:41 +0000 http://tvhe.wordpress.com/?p=2299#comment-3956 This guy has an over-valued sense of his own importance. I look at the data but ignore his ignorant commentary!

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