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Comments on: Is this all a rational reaction to falling household wealth http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/01/14/is-this-all-a-rational-reaction-to-falling-household-wealth/ The Visible Hand in Economics Sun, 18 Jan 2009 06:52:01 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Bedroomunit » Blog Archive » Recessed Medicine Cabinets http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/01/14/is-this-all-a-rational-reaction-to-falling-household-wealth/#comment-10364 Sun, 18 Jan 2009 06:52:01 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=2617#comment-10364 […] Is this all a rational reaction to falling household wealth | TVHE […]

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By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/01/14/is-this-all-a-rational-reaction-to-falling-household-wealth/#comment-9778 Wed, 14 Jan 2009 03:17:59 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=2617#comment-9778 “Because we can’t instantly switch everyone from producing consumption goods to capital goods, and if we try the result is a lot of intermediate unemployment. That’s the result we get if everyone tries to raise their savings level at the same time.”

Cool, so the problem stems from the lack of perfect substitutability – not from the fact that “savings are now too low”. As a result, government policy should be focused on improving workforce training and helping the macroeconomic adjustment along – rather than trying to prevent it happening.

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By: CPW http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/01/14/is-this-all-a-rational-reaction-to-falling-household-wealth/#comment-9774 Wed, 14 Jan 2009 03:14:56 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=2617#comment-9774 “Ultimately, if households have realised that there expectations are out of whack and are responding then why is it optimal for the government to spend money now and then tax people more in the future?”

Because we can’t instantly switch everyone from producing consumption goods to capital goods, and if we try the result is a lot of intermediate unemployment. That’s the result we get if everyone tries to raise their savings level at the same time.

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By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/01/14/is-this-all-a-rational-reaction-to-falling-household-wealth/#comment-9760 Wed, 14 Jan 2009 02:51:48 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=2617#comment-9760 Another way to put it is that the pain of a recession comes from two areas, a structural decline in activity and a misallocation of resources stemming from a lack of price adjustment.

The government should help improve the speed with which resources are allocated to minimise the pain – it shouldn’t try to stop a structural adjustment.

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By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/01/14/is-this-all-a-rational-reaction-to-falling-household-wealth/#comment-9759 Wed, 14 Jan 2009 02:49:13 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=2617#comment-9759 “there’s no guarantee the transition path will be optimal”

There is also no guarantee that government actions to change the path would be optimal. Furthermore – if the government isn’t willing to let us move to an equilibrium with higher savings now, is there an assurance they ever will?

Ultimately, if households have realised that there expectations are out of whack and are responding then why is it optimal for the government to spend money now and then tax people more in the future?

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By: CPW http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/01/14/is-this-all-a-rational-reaction-to-falling-household-wealth/#comment-9757 Wed, 14 Jan 2009 02:43:55 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=2617#comment-9757 Even if the change in the economy to a new higher rate of savings is desirable, there’s no guarantee the transition path will be optimal. There could still be room for the government to stimulate aggregate demand in the meantime – we don’t want to try and move to the new savings position instantaneously.

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