Comments on: Should we trust the forecasters? http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/03/03/should-we-trust-the-forecasters/ The Visible Hand in Economics Thu, 29 Jul 2010 22:40:32 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Adam Gordon http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/03/03/should-we-trust-the-forecasters/comment-page-1/#comment-17815 Adam Gordon Thu, 05 Mar 2009 19:21:23 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=3071#comment-17815 What forecasters think of Hanson's idea... yes there is much good forecasting, yes there is little correlation between the good stuff and the stuff you hear. I've had a full swing at these topics in my new book - micro-blurb: "We all know that nobody can predict the future, but it is also clear that some forecasts and forecasters are better than others. Foresight is crucial - all leadership decisions we make today will play out in the future - so wouldn't it be useful to be able to tell a good forecast from a bad one? And even more so in these uncertain times. Future Savvy," published by The American Management Association, is a user's guide to making better decisions about predictions. It shows forecast consumers how to assess and discern quality in the future thinking they read and hear, step by step, with examples and case studies of interest to both industry and government decision-makers. It views expert foresight as a crucial resource, but puts sharp tools in the hands of forecast users. It is designed to be the business or policy manager's core reference in evaluating what the media, consultants, investment brokers, industry analysts and other gurus and talking heads are saying about the future." Future Savvy, Adam Gordon, (Amacom Press, NY, 2009) ISBN 978-0814409121 Amazon.com: http://tinyurl.com/5mdu2c thanks for interesting post, Adam The Future Savvy Journal: http://www.futuresavvy.net What forecasters think of Hanson’s idea… yes there is much good forecasting, yes there is little correlation between the good stuff and the stuff you hear. I’ve had a full swing at these topics in my new book – micro-blurb:

“We all know that nobody can predict the future, but it is also clear that some forecasts and forecasters are better than others. Foresight is crucial – all leadership decisions we make today will play out in the future – so wouldn’t it be useful to be able to tell a good forecast from a bad one? And even more so in these uncertain times. Future Savvy,” published by The American Management Association, is a user’s guide to making better decisions about predictions. It shows forecast consumers how to assess and discern quality in the future thinking they read and hear, step by step, with examples and case studies of interest to both industry and government decision-makers. It views expert foresight as a crucial resource, but puts sharp tools in the hands of forecast users. It is designed to be the business or policy manager’s core reference in evaluating what the media, consultants, investment brokers, industry analysts and other gurus and talking heads are saying about the future.”

Future Savvy, Adam Gordon, (Amacom Press, NY, 2009) ISBN 978-0814409121
Amazon.com: http://tinyurl.com/5mdu2c

thanks for interesting post,
Adam
The Future Savvy Journal: http://www.futuresavvy.net

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