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Comments on: The post March 09 MPS $NZ bounce http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/03/13/the-post-march-09-mps-nz-bounce/ The Visible Hand in Economics Fri, 13 Mar 2009 03:31:52 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/03/13/the-post-march-09-mps-nz-bounce/#comment-17991 Fri, 13 Mar 2009 03:31:52 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=3227#comment-17991 “Which market? Didn’t iPredict have higher prices on its 0.50 contract than its 0.75 contract?”

Indeed it did – by a long way 🙂

However, if you had to come up with a simple sample statistic that measured the probabilities associated with the decision ex-ante I think iPredicit would have “expected a 70bp cut” itself.

The “70 bp cut” was just the market place saying that it put x% on 50, y% on 75, and z% on 100. If I remember correctly iPredict had around 50% on 50 25% on 75 and 25% on 100. That would be a market price of about 68.75% …

]]> By: Eric Crampton http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/03/13/the-post-march-09-mps-nz-bounce/#comment-17990 Fri, 13 Mar 2009 03:26:39 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=3227#comment-17990 Which market? Didn’t iPredict have higher prices on its 0.50 contract than its 0.75 contract?

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