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Comments on: Consumer debt, monetarism, and depressions http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/04/07/consumer-debt-monetarism-and-depressions/ The Visible Hand in Economics Sat, 25 Apr 2009 19:11:09 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Sandip Sen http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/04/07/consumer-debt-monetarism-and-depressions/#comment-19328 Sat, 25 Apr 2009 19:11:09 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=3537#comment-19328 Hi Matt,

You are right. You can’t blame one institution or the Government. Warren Buffet blamed the instrument itself. Way back in 2002 he famously predicted ” Derivates are the financial weapons of mass destruction”
No body listened to the old man as they were too engrossed in making money. So much so that by 2005 the Banking industry was so swamped with demand that they began issuing the derivatives without even having time to do the background paperwork for the securitization. When things got out of control Tim Geithner, then head of Federal Reserve pressed the top 15 financial firms who were issuing the derivatives to build an electronic network for recording of these instruments which was completed only by the third quarter of 2006. By then the damage was done. Some details are available at http://www.ecothrust.blogspot.com on both
Buffet’s opinion & Geithner’s role.

The issue, as in the Great Depression, was a massive downcycle due to a multiple institution fault. Even in the GD it was the Bank failures of 1907 which created the crisis of 1929 largely due to improper regulation by the Government which Friedman points to. The Government as now failed to meet its only responsibilty that was primarily “TO REGULATE” . Surprisingly it fails to do so even today after the Sept crash. The farcial stress tests by Banks themselves without external auditing is another example of failure of the Regulator, that will only help prolonging the misery. The fact is that cyclic ups and downs are natural, but only when you artificially manipulate the up cycle the down cycle hits you harder.

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By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/04/07/consumer-debt-monetarism-and-depressions/#comment-19203 Wed, 22 Apr 2009 22:03:55 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=3537#comment-19203 @Sandip Sen

Hi Sen,

Thanks for the comment.

I am not sure I would completely put the responsibility for the depression down to government – after all, large recessions and booms were prevalent well before we had centralized monetary and fiscal policy.

Understanding how monetary and fiscal policy fit in with economic ebbs and flows is important – and is an issue we still have work to do on. But I don’t think we can solely put blame down on a single institution.

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By: Consumer debt, monetarism, and depressions | TVHE | Debt Relief http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/04/07/consumer-debt-monetarism-and-depressions/#comment-18870 Wed, 08 Apr 2009 13:01:20 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=3537#comment-18870 […] More:  Consumer debt, monetarism, and depressions | TVHE […]

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By: Evelyn Guzman http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/04/07/consumer-debt-monetarism-and-depressions/#comment-18860 Wed, 08 Apr 2009 00:16:15 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=3537#comment-18860 I am glad to read your perspective on the issue of whether or not we are going to undergo depression. I like the analysis you made of the situation and your belief that we are not going to have another great depression is most welcome. Yes it’s due to policy and technology but sometimes the latter is hard on the consumers as one sometimes can’t talk to a real live person in the customer service department.

Evelyn Guzman
Debt Challenger

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By: thomas http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/04/07/consumer-debt-monetarism-and-depressions/#comment-18843 Tue, 07 Apr 2009 15:05:40 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=3537#comment-18843 I know many people who are behind on mortgage payments and they

are getting the run around when they try and call

their lender for a loan modification. This company

really helped me out, they’re really professional

and easy to talk to. Here is their contact

information: http://www.consumerdebtconcepts.com

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By: Sandip Sen http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/04/07/consumer-debt-monetarism-and-depressions/#comment-18842 Tue, 07 Apr 2009 14:36:07 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=3537#comment-18842 Hi Matt,

Nice blog. Here are some differing views of the Milton Friedman who assessed the GD closely and clinically. It looks similar to the current
day happenings.

In the Chapter ” Anatomy of Crisis” of the Great Depression, Milton Freidman in his popular best seller ” Free to Choose ” clearly says that during the 1929-34 period
” the Keynesian revolution not only captured economics profession, but also provided an appealing justification and a prescription for government intervention.
The shift in opinion of both the public and the economics profession resulted from a misunderstanding of what had actually happened. We now know, as few knew then , that the depression was not produced by a failure of private enterprise , but rather a failure of government in an area where the government had from the first been assigned responsibility —- To coin money, regulate the Value thereof and of foreign coin”

Freidman goes on to say in the Book that wrong government intervention & “subsidising the inefficient policy” propped up “The Knickerbockers Trust company” and many banks in 1907 creating a Federal Reserve system that created arbitrary rules on restriction on withdrawal of deposits , that collapsed ultimately in 1929 to create a much greater and long drawn depression.

The present day crisis has roots similar to the great depression.
Once again it is probably the government intervention & “subsidising the undeserving policy ” policy that is precipitating the crisis. By propping up the security & mortgage arms of monolithic banks & insurers such as Citi & AIG it is putting pressure on the already distressed citizen tax payer. If Banking or Insurance operations and derivatives business are segregated the problem will largely dissapear from the core functions of these companies which could go about the daily business normally. The derivatives business then must be examined closely, one large part of which would be the subprime mortgages that have been securitized. This part must be either
dis entangled and scrutinized or written off en block. It is illiogical to repeatedly try and sell these toxic mortgages as securities in the market knowing that they would mutate and collapse in future under the weight of their toxicity.
The US Governments , the Fed & the Treasury’s persistance with the disposal of the sub prime housing mortgages first by securitization and now by the public private partnership is simply baffling and shall only prolong and deepen the crisis, by the next quarter.

Investment Guru warren Buffet had predicted in 2002 that these derivatives are financial instruments of mass destruction
More on the subject at http://www.ecothrust.blogspot.com , a recent
blog on ecology and economy.

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By: Consumer prices - not asset prices | TVHE http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/04/07/consumer-debt-monetarism-and-depressions/#comment-18840 Tue, 07 Apr 2009 12:28:14 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=3537#comment-18840 […] I mentioned a the piece by Steven Gjerstand and Vernon Smith that was a bit harsh on monetarism – as it ignored that the […]

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