😀

If analysts only concentrated on where they could add value we would all be better off – I blame signaling 😉

Indeedy.

However, I did feel that it was important to note that a stronger dollar could come from improving growth prospects or rising commodity prices – as otherwise we tend to treat the dollar to growth relationship in a solely negative light.

Coverage on movements in the exchange rate is relatively poor – perhaps we should all just admit it is a random walk and move on 😀

Hi Dismal,

Who is oversimplifying here? I agree we shouldn’t just look for a single factor to look at things – but my goal was to mention some of the reasons why the dollar might be moving, just so we can have a think about them.

This is just a routine example of media oversimplification. Look at Bloomberg and Reuters stories about the FX market. Their prime audience are market participants (traders and analysts) who ought to know that market rates and the confluence of many different factors. Yet the journalists persist in spinning stories that the market went up because of greater confidence or a went down as people bailed out of risky assets. Such commentary is lazy journalism and certainly poor analysis.

While those of us who are more critical in our thinking view such stories with horror, many do not. This allows the journalists to get away with it. And unfortunately it seems to be a common trait across all media types and all news genres.