Comments on: The Dec 09 UR: Terrible, but not http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2010/02/04/the-dec-09-ur-terrible-but-not/ The Visible Hand in Economics Thu, 29 Jul 2010 22:40:32 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Miguel Sanchez http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2010/02/04/the-dec-09-ur-terrible-but-not/comment-page-1/#comment-22921 Miguel Sanchez Tue, 09 Feb 2010 18:38:03 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=4699#comment-22921 Not sure I'd credit it to discouraged workers. I guess it comes down to how the folks answering the survey perceive it, but I read this question as more of an aspirational thing than a matter of search effort - there's no barrier to saying that you'd like more hours, even if you don't believe those hours are available. Not sure I’d credit it to discouraged workers. I guess it comes down to how the folks answering the survey perceive it, but I read this question as more of an aspirational thing than a matter of search effort – there’s no barrier to saying that you’d like more hours, even if you don’t believe those hours are available.

]]> By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2010/02/04/the-dec-09-ur-terrible-but-not/comment-page-1/#comment-22912 Matt Nolan Tue, 09 Feb 2010 04:00:31 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=4699#comment-22912 <a href="#comment-22911" rel="nofollow">@Miguel Sanchez </a> "To answer my own question, it’s possible that some people stayed in part-time work and decided they didn’t want extra hours after all. Hey, I said possible, not plausible." Actually, I like it. Its the discouraged worker effect, just coming through part time labour. Nice - I might have to borrow that ;-) @Miguel Sanchez

“To answer my own question, it’s possible that some people stayed in part-time work and decided they didn’t want extra hours after all. Hey, I said possible, not plausible.”

Actually, I like it. Its the discouraged worker effect, just coming through part time labour. Nice – I might have to borrow that ;-)

]]> By: Miguel Sanchez http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2010/02/04/the-dec-09-ur-terrible-but-not/comment-page-1/#comment-22911 Miguel Sanchez Tue, 09 Feb 2010 03:57:30 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=4699#comment-22911 You're not the first one to raise issue with the seasonal adjustments - but I think in this case there was a problem with adding extra people, not making them disappear. To answer my own question, it's possible that some people stayed in part-time work and decided they didn't want extra hours after all. Hey, I said possible, not plausible. You’re not the first one to raise issue with the seasonal adjustments – but I think in this case there was a problem with adding extra people, not making them disappear.

To answer my own question, it’s possible that some people stayed in part-time work and decided they didn’t want extra hours after all. Hey, I said possible, not plausible.

]]> By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2010/02/04/the-dec-09-ur-terrible-but-not/comment-page-1/#comment-22910 Matt Nolan Tue, 09 Feb 2010 03:05:31 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=4699#comment-22910 <a href="#comment-22909" rel="nofollow">@Miguel Sanchez </a> "So here’s a puzzle for you: where did the underemployed people go?" I know, that absolutely did my head in when I went through the numbers!!! Ultimately, SA numbers often don't add up. This is standard, but it is possible that one of the seasonally adjusted factors was funky - I wouldn't be surprised to see (another) big revision of the quarter by Stats NZ before the March figures comes out in May :P Also, as a note, there is no contradiction between talking about layoffs and employment being flat - those people can get laid off only for other people to rock into jobs. However, I do agree that the SA numbers don't add up. @Miguel Sanchez

“So here’s a puzzle for you: where did the underemployed people go?”

I know, that absolutely did my head in when I went through the numbers!!!

Ultimately, SA numbers often don’t add up. This is standard, but it is possible that one of the seasonally adjusted factors was funky – I wouldn’t be surprised to see (another) big revision of the quarter by Stats NZ before the March figures comes out in May :P

Also, as a note, there is no contradiction between talking about layoffs and employment being flat – those people can get laid off only for other people to rock into jobs. However, I do agree that the SA numbers don’t add up.

]]> By: Miguel Sanchez http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2010/02/04/the-dec-09-ur-terrible-but-not/comment-page-1/#comment-22909 Miguel Sanchez Tue, 09 Feb 2010 02:59:23 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=4699#comment-22909 "What does this suggest – well it sort of suggests that the people that were laid off during the December quarter were the people who wanted more hours in September, sort of (as we are excluding normal seasonal factors as well)." But the December result wasn't driven by layoffs - employment was only down a bit, and part-time employment was flat. So here's a puzzle for you: where did the underemployed people go? They didn't go into full-time work, because those numbers were down; they didn't go into unemployment, because part-time jobs didn't fall; and they didn't leave the labour force, because the participation rate was up. So where are they? “What does this suggest – well it sort of suggests that the people that were laid off during the December quarter were the people who wanted more hours in September, sort of (as we are excluding normal seasonal factors as well).”

But the December result wasn’t driven by layoffs – employment was only down a bit, and part-time employment was flat. So here’s a puzzle for you: where did the underemployed people go? They didn’t go into full-time work, because those numbers were down; they didn’t go into unemployment, because part-time jobs didn’t fall; and they didn’t leave the labour force, because the participation rate was up. So where are they?

]]> By: TVHE » Video: On the unemployment leap http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2010/02/04/the-dec-09-ur-terrible-but-not/comment-page-1/#comment-22839 TVHE » Video: On the unemployment leap Thu, 04 Feb 2010 20:46:18 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=4699#comment-22839 [...] It is consistent with what I wrote yesterday, even if it doesn’t seem that way.  Furthermore, I don’t believe the government was too “inactive” in this case – we aren’t a centrally planned economy, blaming the government appears pretty arbitrary. [...] [...] It is consistent with what I wrote yesterday, even if it doesn’t seem that way.  Furthermore, I don’t believe the government was too “inactive” in this case – we aren’t a centrally planned economy, blaming the government appears pretty arbitrary. [...]

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