Bank economists main perogetive is to there traders, so I assume that there discussion will be significantly stronger when talking to what is effectively their client base. When it comes to releasing reports like this it is important to remember that it often functions as advertising – so they are just trying to give a generic, and sometimes yes meaningless, discussion.

Also it is important to try and remember what we mean when we say economists forecast accuracy is not important – we are not saying that the art of forecasting isn’t important, just that it is incomplete. The value should come through the discussion regarding risks and the pointing out of important factors – rather than a blind reliance on figures.

That is very true Hone.

I find it runs even deeper than that for some areas that are placed in the branch of science – eg nutritionists. Often they do not properly show causation, do not include obvious exogenous variables, and do nothing about endogeniety – and yet a lot of their work is shown as “truth about food”. It irks me, and a number of health professionals I know 😛

For Mankiw to see the headline in an RSS he would have to subscribe – I have no doubt that he would never subscribe to this blog 😀