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Comments on: Sigh, more like SCF? http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2010/09/01/sigh-more-like-scf/ The Visible Hand in Economics Thu, 02 Sep 2010 23:19:56 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Eric Crampton http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2010/09/01/sigh-more-like-scf/#comment-27650 Thu, 02 Sep 2010 23:19:56 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5358#comment-27650 @Miguel: That last bit clears a lot up. Thanks.

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By: Miguel Sanchez http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2010/09/01/sigh-more-like-scf/#comment-27649 Thu, 02 Sep 2010 21:22:08 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5358#comment-27649 Well swan, the premise for the guarantee in the first place was that if we didn’t match Australia’s move then people would shift their money from NZ banks to Aussie banks (taking on a huge wodge of exchange rate risk in the process). If you were gullible enough to believe that, then it’s no stretch to believe that people would shift their money from NZ finance companies to NZ banks.

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By: swan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2010/09/01/sigh-more-like-scf/#comment-27644 Thu, 02 Sep 2010 19:18:02 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5358#comment-27644 What I can’t understand is why the treasury thought that finance companies had to be covered if banks were, due to redemption risk.

There was always a massive gulf between the risk on bank deposits and that on (most) finance company deposits. The change to zero/government debt risk on bank deposits surely wouldn’t change this much. It is like saying motorcyclists would start taking the bus if only buses were fitted with seat-belts.

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By: Miguel Sanchez http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2010/09/01/sigh-more-like-scf/#comment-27624 Thu, 02 Sep 2010 02:36:57 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5358#comment-27624 @Eric Crampton
Hey, you asked for the reason. I never said it was a good one.

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By: scrubone http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2010/09/01/sigh-more-like-scf/#comment-27623 Thu, 02 Sep 2010 02:15:47 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5358#comment-27623 Here’s a thought: why not provide only a part-guarantee for second tier finances?

Say, 80%. Enough to make sure the system doesn’t collapse, but still enough to make it more risky.

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By: Andrew Coleman http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2010/09/01/sigh-more-like-scf/#comment-27619 Wed, 01 Sep 2010 21:28:49 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5358#comment-27619 Hey,

Not too many tears for the Government – us – please. For years the government has taxed the full nominal interest paid out to lenders, including the risk premium, but it has never allowed individuals to deduct losses if their loans went sour. Now they have backed themselves into a scheme where they take all the losses on the downside but only 20 – 33% (ie tax) of the risk premium on the up side. Two wrongs don’t make a right, but the long term fiscal exposure of the government to the finance companies has been not nearly so bad as the short term position. And, with a modicum of justice, the taxes earned on the premiums are proportional to the premiums.

The biggest losers are of course those who lent the money in the past. paid taxes on the interest premiums, and then got no bail out when their loans went sour.

Andrew

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By: Eric Crampton http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2010/09/01/sigh-more-like-scf/#comment-27618 Wed, 01 Sep 2010 18:48:06 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5358#comment-27618 But isn’t that the point of an efficient price?! Jesus.

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By: Miguel Sanchez http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2010/09/01/sigh-more-like-scf/#comment-27598 Wed, 01 Sep 2010 10:06:58 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5358#comment-27598 Because it was an opt-in scheme – as advocated by Treasury – and the finance companies wouldn’t have joined if they’d had to pay anything like the true price for the risk they were offloading.

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By: Eric Crampton http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2010/09/01/sigh-more-like-scf/#comment-27593 Wed, 01 Sep 2010 09:25:35 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5358#comment-27593 What I don’t get is how we get from Treasury recommending charging rates that varied with credit ratings, to the mess we got when it was implemented.

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