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Comments on: Rough 2011 predictions http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/01/19/rough-2011-predictions/ The Visible Hand in Economics Wed, 02 Feb 2011 21:17:45 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Mike Bell http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/01/19/rough-2011-predictions/#comment-32094 Wed, 02 Feb 2011 21:17:45 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5580#comment-32094 What’s the prediction for the plight of isreal? with the world watching, focusing their Stage Lighting on the isreali landscape, do you think it will subside or implode?

]]> By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/01/19/rough-2011-predictions/#comment-32001 Thu, 27 Jan 2011 20:31:59 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5580#comment-32001 @raf

I hope not, I just do not want Manure to win

]]> By: raf http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/01/19/rough-2011-predictions/#comment-31977 Wed, 26 Jan 2011 22:00:30 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5580#comment-31977 Matt, Your Arsenal forecast fills me with much hope but my head tells me the Damned United will still sneak home.

]]> By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/01/19/rough-2011-predictions/#comment-31944 Tue, 25 Jan 2011 03:36:17 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5580#comment-31944 @goonix

Excellent point, predictions added.

@Harry C

Interesting stuff, thanks.

]]> By: allen http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/01/19/rough-2011-predictions/#comment-31935 Sun, 23 Jan 2011 14:10:49 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5580#comment-31935 Chinese growth will slow to 8%?? it do not seem so

]]> By: Harry C http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/01/19/rough-2011-predictions/#comment-31934 Sat, 22 Jan 2011 22:03:30 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5580#comment-31934 Just in terms of your prediction that Israel will attack Iran over its nuclear weapons capabilities, I think Israel’s cyber attack of Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities has made that action less likely. Have you read about it? I think they made a judgement that a subtle attack by other means was going to be more effective than a full blown attack that would likely incense the whole of the middle east…

Here’s an article if you’re interested: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/16/world/middleeast/16stuxnet.html?_r=2&src=twt&twt=nytimes&pagewanted=all

]]> By: goonix http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/01/19/rough-2011-predictions/#comment-31925 Thu, 20 Jan 2011 18:48:03 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5580#comment-31925 Where are the football predictions? Who will win the Premier League? Will the Nix make the top six? Will Liverpool be relegated? 😛

]]> By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/01/19/rough-2011-predictions/#comment-31902 Wed, 19 Jan 2011 01:42:21 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5580#comment-31902 @Dave

This guy:

http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/08/27/the-24-price-pick/

I would note that there were some pretty big factors between now and then: 1) a significant change to the tax status of housing 2) the fact that the availability of credit has not improved as much as expected 3) the much weaker labour market (increasing the average size of the household) and 4) an unanticipated drop in migrant arrival numbers 5) a significant cut in the top tax rate 6) weaker inflationary pressures on the back of softer than anticipated economic growth 7) an adjustment in households expectations regarding the future path of house prices.

House prices did get up 6%, but then these changes (especially the tax changes) lead to significant downward pressure on prices.

😉

Note: That specific house price forecast was from my work, the above forecasts aren’t particularly serious – they are just me playing around in an unofficial capacity.

]]> By: Dave http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/01/19/rough-2011-predictions/#comment-31901 Wed, 19 Jan 2011 01:30:56 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5580#comment-31901 Any thoughts on “The 24% price pick” for house prices, 1.5 years on from August 2009? We still have “intense lack of building, extreme loosening in monetary policy, lack of movement on structural imbalances, and sharp increase in net migration”, which were all factors you quoted in support of it, so why didn’t it happen? I guess you could argue that you still have 1.5 years to go. 🙂

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