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Comments on: Fiscal spending: Cycles and structures http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/03/30/fiscal-spending-cycles-and-structures/ The Visible Hand in Economics Thu, 21 Apr 2011 12:06:06 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Harry C http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/03/30/fiscal-spending-cycles-and-structures/#comment-33358 Thu, 21 Apr 2011 12:06:06 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5844#comment-33358 I think your second factor lets down the argument, in the sense that National is not approaching spending cuts in a rational way. I guess in an ideal world they would be looking at the cost-benefit ratios of all government programmes and then whittling down the least productive areas of spending, but that’s evidently not what they’re doing! You just have to look at the ‘roads of national significance’, which quite often have cost benefit ratios of less than one and yet are still funded at the expense of other things, to see that they’re not doing this sensibly. Instead, the cuts are at least partly a politically driven process where they just cull things that they don’t agree with. Yeah, so it’s a dangerous assumption, I think, that the areas being cut are extremely unproductive…

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By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/03/30/fiscal-spending-cycles-and-structures/#comment-33051 Wed, 30 Mar 2011 00:00:01 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5844#comment-33051 @Eric Crampton

They had mentioned it previously, and when tax revenues were down they did say they were looking at moderating spending. To be fair, compared to the US government, NZ has been willing to say that it will target a medium term balanced budget – that is why National keeps on going on about the target of getting back in surplus in 5 years.

Now 5 years may look like a long time, but when you see their forecasts it seems that we don’t really get back to potential for some time. Now I’ve noticed that the Reserve Bank has the output gap closing in two years – I would suggest that the structural deficit might be a bit more problematic if that is the case …

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By: Eric Crampton http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/03/30/fiscal-spending-cycles-and-structures/#comment-33049 Tue, 29 Mar 2011 23:08:48 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5844#comment-33049 Shame National didn’t care about the structural deficit ’till we hit a bit of a wall, but better late than never.

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By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/03/30/fiscal-spending-cycles-and-structures/#comment-33048 Tue, 29 Mar 2011 21:21:22 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5844#comment-33048 @Eric Crampton

We all have different priors, what can I say. I am sure I come off as overly dogmatic in defense of inflation targeting.

His comment in this case is definitely justifiable – however, I feel it required more context. I see economists of ALL stripes railing against deficits or for them, without splitting the conversation into “structural” and “cyclical” elements. It is an important, nah essential, thing to do when looking at spending in a “macro” sense.

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By: Eric Crampton http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/03/30/fiscal-spending-cycles-and-structures/#comment-33047 Tue, 29 Mar 2011 21:17:03 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=5844#comment-33047 Did Ganesh give any warnings back in 05 about how we should be saving surpluses against a future downturn rather than spend it all out in WFF?

He’s reliable for Radio NZ though. Whenever they want somebody to argue against cuts in spending or against inflation targeting, just call up ol’ reliable Ganesh.

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