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Comments on: Forecasts are wrong, but is there some reason for them? http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/08/26/forecasts-are-wrong-but-is-there-some-reason-for-them/ The Visible Hand in Economics Mon, 29 Aug 2011 02:09:50 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: What’s the point of forecasts? » TVHE http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/08/26/forecasts-are-wrong-but-is-there-some-reason-for-them/#comment-33975 Mon, 29 Aug 2011 02:09:50 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=6124#comment-33975 […] 29, 2011 Matt blogs every now and then defending economic forecasters and always seems to draw out at least a couple of comments slagging off forecasters for being […]

]]> By: rauparaha http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/08/26/forecasts-are-wrong-but-is-there-some-reason-for-them/#comment-33974 Mon, 29 Aug 2011 01:56:09 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=6124#comment-33974 In reply to Miguel Sanchez.

Yeah, I was talking more about the blog posts than Rodney’s piece. They don’t appear to take such a measured approach as he does.

]]> By: Pangolin http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/08/26/forecasts-are-wrong-but-is-there-some-reason-for-them/#comment-33960 Sun, 28 Aug 2011 06:52:24 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=6124#comment-33960 How many times does somebody have to do the “monkey with a dart board” trick before you clowns get shunted off to wherever astrologers and phrenologists have their conventions? 

You use a lot of words and numbers to make wild-assed guesses. The moon is in Scorpio with Mercure retrograde also uses numbers and observations and the forecasts are equally vague and useless.  

]]> By: Miguel Sanchez http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/08/26/forecasts-are-wrong-but-is-there-some-reason-for-them/#comment-33941 Fri, 26 Aug 2011 10:10:31 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=6124#comment-33941 “they all seem to have the premise that people purchasing the forecasts for tens of thousands of dollars are wasting their money”

Quite the opposite in Rodney’s case – he’s an independent consultant who doesn’t have the resources that the banks, think tanks etc have, so he has to sell himself on the premise that his forecasts are better than anyone else’s.  These things are not ‘research’, they’re marketing material.

]]> By: rauparaha http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/08/26/forecasts-are-wrong-but-is-there-some-reason-for-them/#comment-33933 Fri, 26 Aug 2011 01:16:30 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=6124#comment-33933 When I read the diatribes against forecasters they all seem to have the premise that people purchasing the forecasts for tens of thousands of dollars are wasting their money. I think any argument premised on someone being ‘too stupid to realise they’re wasting their money’ is probably missing something.

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