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Comments on: A cut to the OCR, why? http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/05/08/a-cut-to-the-ocr-why/ The Visible Hand in Economics Sat, 12 May 2012 23:32:02 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Matthew http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/05/08/a-cut-to-the-ocr-why/#comment-37845 Sat, 12 May 2012 23:32:02 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=6932#comment-37845 This guy agrees – RBNZ should ease

 http://ricardianambivalence.com/2012/05/12/the-rbnz-should-ease-policy/

]]> By: Eric Crampton http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/05/08/a-cut-to-the-ocr-why/#comment-37730 Tue, 08 May 2012 00:58:19 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=6932#comment-37730 But, more chance of RBNZ insiders trading on iPredict as a bit of fun than their taking big positions on the interest rate markets.

]]> By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/05/08/a-cut-to-the-ocr-why/#comment-37727 Mon, 07 May 2012 21:53:47 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=6932#comment-37727 In reply to Eric Crampton.

The Credit Suisse link is implied market pricing on interest rate markets – so it is interesting to see that two markets that involve trade based on the latest information have such different prices. 

For now, when it comes to the OCR, I will stick to interest rate markets where the money on the line is a lot more significant.

]]> By: Eric Crampton http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/05/08/a-cut-to-the-ocr-why/#comment-37726 Mon, 07 May 2012 21:46:12 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=6932#comment-37726 Hmm. The Credit Suisse link has the chance of a 25bp drop at 81%. iPredict has “no change” at 71%, after a spike downwards to 60 that was quickly reversed.

Shame it’s impossible for a retail guy like me to play that arb. 

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