Just my lucky day, I guess 🙂

The logical difference between association and causation is well-known in the social
sciences, but even today some cannot distinguish between the two. It is confusion of the two concepts that has led to the specific forms of the Melanesian cargo cult rituals. An
observed association of the arrival of cargo with the prior ritual of donning a headset and
speaking into a microphone was seen by local indigenous groups as connoting a causal
chain.

Their mistake (according to external observers) is that they did not understand
the fundamentals determining the production of the cargo, and they lacked “the practical
knowledge and technical means to achieve their ends” in the absence of the ritual.

Believing in a causal relationship between the observed outcome of the Aotearoans
spending more than they produce (accompanied by a high level of The Real Exchange
Rate) and the Arbee’s prior OC Ritual represents a similar confusion. The Imbalance is
seen to be a result of ritual embodying strong magic. But the OC Ritual is only associated
with The Imbalance, it is not its cause. Nor is the ritual responsible for the divergence of
Aotearoan living standards relative to those of the West Island.