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Comments on: Persistently high unemployment doesn’t mean the government should spend more http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/08/10/persistently-high-unemployment-doesnt-mean-the-government-should-spend-more/ The Visible Hand in Economics Fri, 30 Dec 2022 21:11:03 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Eric Crampton http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/08/10/persistently-high-unemployment-doesnt-mean-the-government-should-spend-more/#comment-39812 Sat, 11 Aug 2012 08:06:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=7408#comment-39812 Earthquake would have hit at just the right time, idle resources sitting round and all. Shame so many of them are still sitting idle. (grumble moan)

]]> By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/08/10/persistently-high-unemployment-doesnt-mean-the-government-should-spend-more/#comment-39810 Fri, 10 Aug 2012 02:59:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=7408#comment-39810 In reply to JC.

These quarterly movements are incredibly uncertain – I’m not a fan of “explaining” through the quarterly numbers too much, as its essentially lies since most of the movement will reverse out the next quarter. Remember this is a sample, not a population.

Yes the Canterbury numbers have increased more slowly over time than many would expect, and yes youth unemployment is down from a random high level a year ago – but neither change is “significant” in the sense we can confidently say that it wasn’t actually zero and our figure is wrong :/

A single quarter’s data is given too much credence by people, as they want answers that do not exist – we need a pre-existing story of what is going on, based on all the other economic indicators, before we can even interpret the labour market data!

]]> By: JC http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/08/10/persistently-high-unemployment-doesnt-mean-the-government-should-spend-more/#comment-39809 Fri, 10 Aug 2012 02:21:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=7408#comment-39809 I see in the survey that youth unemployment went down and that the biggest factor in the overall rise was the loss of female jobs (15800) in Canterbury.. mainly health, education and social services. That youth drop likely indicates an improvement in confidence in some sectors.. and maybe that youth have spruced up their act as potential employees.

Also, Canty employers have employed 800 unemployed in anticipation of the rebuild with another 1000 jobs being offered in October.

Looks to me like things are going about right without too much Govt interference.

JC

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