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Comments on: Defending inflation targeting http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/08/30/defending-inflation-targeting/ The Visible Hand in Economics Wed, 19 Sep 2012 21:37:53 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Reframing the monetary policy debate: Some notes | The Dismal Science http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/08/30/defending-inflation-targeting/#comment-39948 Wed, 19 Sep 2012 21:37:53 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=7492#comment-39948 […] discussed a similar post of his earlier.  But right now, I want to state that neither of these things is really true – I can 100% […]

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By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/08/30/defending-inflation-targeting/#comment-39890 Sun, 02 Sep 2012 22:17:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=7492#comment-39890 In reply to Blair Pritchard.

As a side note, I’d also point out that a number of the articles currently supporting NGDP targeting, eg:

http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2012/mw.pdf?sm=jh083112-4

Are doing so in the context of needing a “credible commitment” to deal with the issue of interest rates being pinned to the zero lower bound in a number of countries. It is a form of communication that can be used in a specific circumstance, rather than the policy rule that should be used over an economic cycle.

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By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/08/30/defending-inflation-targeting/#comment-39889 Sun, 02 Sep 2012 21:14:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=7492#comment-39889 In reply to Blair Pritchard.

If we are solely to focus on optimal monetary policy settings, I am not viciously against NGDP targeting in any sense.

My willingness to look past inflation targeting in a practical sense came about when I was studying, after reading Mankiw discussing wage growth targeting:

http://scholar.harvard.edu/mankiw/files/target.pdf

In this piece he accepted inflation tageting, and it has been widely discussed on the net that Hall and Mankiw had discussed targeting the level of nominal income as an alternative, and potentially superior, target in the early 1990s:

http://www.nber.org/chapters/c8329.pdf

This is all well and good. However, given the mainstream view of “why” we target inflation, and how this improves outcomes, NGDP level targeting has some undesirable properties relative to targeting growth in “slow to adjust” prices.

One of the key examples is a negative supply shock – such as the increase in imported good prices mentioned above. A lift in imported good prices, even without any market failures, should lead to lower output. If we targeted the level of NGDP instead of growth, then the monetary policy rule increases the variability in prices and output, worsening outcomes relative to a price growth rule.

Now while I can live with NGDP targeting (although I do not believe it is the optimal policy rule for a small open economy), my issue with this sort of talk is that politicians are trying to lay the blame for “imbalances” on the central bank – when these have nothing to do with the monetary policy regime (which is a cyclical issue). In truth, policy makers are making the RBNZ a straw man for other failures – a view that can only lead to worse policy outcomes.

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By: Wasiq Amir http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/08/30/defending-inflation-targeting/#comment-39887 Fri, 31 Aug 2012 10:49:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=7492#comment-39887 Your blog is very nice and informative this is good information are publish.Thank you for sharing some information.
infolx

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By: Blair Pritchard http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/08/30/defending-inflation-targeting/#comment-39886 Fri, 31 Aug 2012 06:52:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=7492#comment-39886 Matt,
You make some very important points. The long term current account balance in NZ is all about a policy environment that aggressively discourages savings and encourages debt, and a combination of policy reform and macro- and micro-prudential regulation appears to be the first cab off the rank.*
However, I do think you were a bit quick to dismiss David Parker’s argument. Although he didn’t make his points well, the reference to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is really a reference to the Sumner Critique. This movement does have deep intellectual foundations, is really the most electrifying discussions in macro, and has won an amazing amount of support from high profile academics in a short time. And without repeating them here, I think the critique goes a lot deeper than David Parker let on.
(*some kind of a limit on LVRs would be a start).

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