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Comments on: An excellent primer on NGDP targeting http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/10/10/an-excellent-primer-on-ngdp-targeting/ The Visible Hand in Economics Wed, 10 Oct 2012 23:28:00 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Eric Crampton http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/10/10/an-excellent-primer-on-ngdp-targeting/#comment-40086 Wed, 10 Oct 2012 23:28:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=7661#comment-40086 In reply to Matt Nolan.

So, when are you going to write the PhD thesis showing it?

[Not meant as snark, meant as – you really should be getting your letters, this could be part of it]

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By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/10/10/an-excellent-primer-on-ngdp-targeting/#comment-40083 Wed, 10 Oct 2012 20:51:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=7661#comment-40083 In reply to Blair.

 If the TOT had fallen, the RBNZ would have responded more sharply even if inflation expectations were completely anchored in a flexible inflation targeting framework methinks.  Not as much as with an NGDP target to be sure – however a drop in the TOT can also be seen as a negative supply shock, so we “shouldn’t” be looking to return to our old trend.

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By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/10/10/an-excellent-primer-on-ngdp-targeting/#comment-40082 Wed, 10 Oct 2012 20:47:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=7661#comment-40082 In reply to Eric Crampton.

 Yeah, I’ll tell you my intuition.

NGDP rate forecast targeting is essential a Taylor rule with equal weights on output and inflation.  Flexible inflation targeting is equivalent to a Taylor rule with weights that are estimated to maximise welfare.  In this way, I can’t see the current system being worse – and I can see it being better.

However, that is just my current intuition – I’m not saying that I can’t be swayed 🙂

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By: Blair http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/10/10/an-excellent-primer-on-ngdp-targeting/#comment-40075 Wed, 10 Oct 2012 06:30:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=7661#comment-40075 It is interesting to think about what would have happened if the terms of trade hadn’t been so strong over 2009-11 and the economy had tanked leaving the private sector with impaired net worth vs “sticky” debts. Conceivably CPI may have been towards the lower end of the target range with a lower dollar, while NGDP fell sharply below trend. In this model targeting NGDP forecasts via a rule could have led to much prompter central bank action than inflation targeting (i.e. because NGDP falls much harder off the trend). Under flexible inflation targeting the central bank would have been more likely to go through a 4-5 year learning process like the Fed has arguably had to.

A counterargument is that the leading US/Euro proponents of NGDP targeting have generally not advocated NGDP targeting for small open economies.

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By: Eric Crampton http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/10/10/an-excellent-primer-on-ngdp-targeting/#comment-40070 Wed, 10 Oct 2012 03:12:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=7661#comment-40070 In reply to Matt Nolan.

Ah, cool. Would also need to think harder about NGDP rate vs our current system. 

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By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/10/10/an-excellent-primer-on-ngdp-targeting/#comment-40064 Wed, 10 Oct 2012 01:47:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=7661#comment-40064 In reply to Eric Crampton.

 Yar that is why I said:

“However, even in this case we may decide that nominal income growth is a
better target than price growth – that is an issue I’d like to spend
more time thinking about.”

Where NGDP growth is really nominal income growth afterall.  I should have probably written NGDP instead of nominal income there to be consistent through the post.

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By: Eric Crampton http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/10/10/an-excellent-primer-on-ngdp-targeting/#comment-40061 Wed, 10 Oct 2012 01:26:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=7661#comment-40061 You *can* do NGDP rate targeting. But otherwise, yeah.  

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