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Comments on: Harford on economic forecasts http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/01/02/harford-on-economic-forecasts/ The Visible Hand in Economics Thu, 10 Jan 2013 22:31:00 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/01/02/harford-on-economic-forecasts/#comment-40348 Thu, 10 Jan 2013 22:31:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=7960#comment-40348 In reply to jamesz.

The numbers help to inform the narrative – and in the case of a CB they also help to anchor expectations.

I suspect the criticism of that CB is based mainly on the last point 😉

]]> By: jamesz http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/01/02/harford-on-economic-forecasts/#comment-40347 Thu, 10 Jan 2013 22:15:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=7960#comment-40347 In reply to Matt Nolan.

My last couple of sentences really sum up how I feel about this. Forecasters say that the narrative provides the value, but the headlines are always about the numbers. The only major CB that provides no headline numbers actually gets criticised by economists for being too vague. So somebody’s not telling the whole truth!

]]> By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/01/02/harford-on-economic-forecasts/#comment-40345 Thu, 10 Jan 2013 20:29:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=7960#comment-40345 I think that many economists who don’t work with the public misunderstand what a forecaster does – as you say its about narrative and providing information.

The idea that they don’t remember your numbers, just the description is accurate – as the numbers are there to provide a context for the story. Such stories provide a context to help planning and provide information – and people pay for those as it helps them with their business decisions.

I don’t understand how this is a negative unless the forecaster is pretending they can actually see the future … which reminds me, I need to write more on my paper about tarot card reading and economics 😉

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