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Comments on: Economists vs historians http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/03/29/economists-vs-historians/ The Visible Hand in Economics Tue, 02 Apr 2013 09:36:00 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: jamesz http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/03/29/economists-vs-historians/#comment-40678 Tue, 02 Apr 2013 09:36:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=8488#comment-40678 In reply to Paul Walker.

Ideally, yes, we would like to explain those. As Matt says, without a general model of almost everything, that could be extremely difficult. Consequently, our ideas about what is important may be right without having a lot of predictive power.

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By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/03/29/economists-vs-historians/#comment-40672 Mon, 01 Apr 2013 07:09:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=8488#comment-40672 In reply to Paul Walker.

I would hazard to guess you use models of multiple equilibrium, and try to make the process of equilibrium selection more transparent.

Of course, this runs into the same sort of issue as assuming that preferences aren’t stable … and as a result, it is something that requires great care. And potentially a recognition that our ability to understand what, where, and why is oft limited.

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By: Paul Walker http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/03/29/economists-vs-historians/#comment-40670 Sat, 30 Mar 2013 03:18:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=8488#comment-40670 But doesn’t this just move the problem back one level. What you now have to do is explain the what, where and why of “critical junctures”. What are “critical junctures”? Why did they occur at this place and at this time?

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By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/03/29/economists-vs-historians/#comment-40668 Thu, 28 Mar 2013 21:42:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=8488#comment-40668 Indeedy, nice post. In economists defense I would point out that at university there was a lot of talk of history dependence and what it means – so it isn’t that economic scientists are ignoring it, just that when we come to practical analysis we may not give the right sort of weight to these issues.

The interesting question is why – I’d put it down to the same reason why economists are uncomfortable with preference shocks. It feels like “assuming your result” and is hard to truly test or observe in real time 🙂

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