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Comments on: Deleveraging: The question that never gets answered http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/06/27/deleveraging-the-question-that-never-gets-answered/ The Visible Hand in Economics Mon, 01 Jul 2013 01:01:08 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: The dangers of “financial stability” | The Dismal Science http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/06/27/deleveraging-the-question-that-never-gets-answered/#comment-41301 Mon, 01 Jul 2013 01:01:08 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=8889#comment-41301 […] but a catch phrase used to justify moral judgments regarding “rebalancing” and “deleveraging“.  This is one of the dangers of focusing on financial stability in such an ill defined way, […]

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By: Two Otherguys http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/06/27/deleveraging-the-question-that-never-gets-answered/#comment-41294 Fri, 28 Jun 2013 00:50:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=8889#comment-41294 Deleveraging is an interesting subject that can never be answered.

There are too many players with differing agendas. Often, it can only be observed at the margin.

As a general rule
It is “human behaviour” for all players not to want to sell anything at a loss, they will hang on until the achievable or market price returns to either a break even or a minor loss.
The visible action occurs when a participant is forced to sell because their “note holder” forces their hand and they become a distressed seller, or the position holder is required to offer up additional margin cover and is either unable or unwilling to do so and “capitulates” which is known in the trade as “puking” their assets. Highly visible.

The invisible sector will hang on if they can and will only unwind if they are tired of the discomfort, or can exit at breakeven, to live another day.
That we havent seen widespread capitulation is testament to the activities of the banks and central bankers to assist the leveraged by inflating assets back to a point that will enabled them the exit gracefully.

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By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/06/27/deleveraging-the-question-that-never-gets-answered/#comment-41291 Thu, 27 Jun 2013 20:03:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=8889#comment-41291 In reply to boristhefrog.

I find even the idea of focusing on a broad level of leverage “over and economy” to be a bit strange – we need to ask who is holding it, and what the risks are given that.

I think things like “deleveraging” are about measurable outputs for people – in truth our interest is in insuring against systemic risk, which provides and externality. However, none of this is observable, and involves fighting “unobserved counterfactuals”. People want visible progress etc etc, and so these other things get more play than they really should …

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By: boristhefrog http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/06/27/deleveraging-the-question-that-never-gets-answered/#comment-41281 Thu, 27 Jun 2013 07:22:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=8889#comment-41281 The measure of leverage can never me answered by LVR alone (which is in effect what this is) – it has to take into account serviceability – so the measure of debt has to link between the asset backing of the debt and the ability to service and repay.

What are the incomes to support debt servicing – if these are high enough and other commitments can be met then is there really a problem?

Clearly there is no right answer as every case is different – all you can do is set out some principles or common sense ideas… prescribing a level that is ‘bad’ makes about as much sense as prescribing a level that is ‘good’.

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