jetpack domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /mnt/stor08-wc1-ord1/694335/916773/www.tvhe.co.nz/web/content/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6131updraftplus domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /mnt/stor08-wc1-ord1/694335/916773/www.tvhe.co.nz/web/content/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6131avia_framework domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /mnt/stor08-wc1-ord1/694335/916773/www.tvhe.co.nz/web/content/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6131Yeah, this link should work here!
https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=NZAE2007&paper_id=23
If it is having some problems, it should be on the NZAE 2010 conference site.
]]>Do you have a link to that forecast comparison paper?
]]>Interesting stuff – I didn’t pay any attention to the RBNZ until 2007, so have just worked with their description of events. Along with that 90 day bill and CPI forecast comparison paper that came out that showed that the RBNZ was the most “bullish” on both those fronts.
However, the high level of non-tradable inflation feeds right into your narrative.
]]>“Concern over the appreciating exchange rate also acted to constrain the Reserve Bank in its ability to respond to pressure emanating from housing.”
There was never any point in that cycle where the exchange rate was expected to lead to (1) an undershoot of the inflation target, (2) a downturn in activity, or (3) any market disruption or other financial stability concerns. So it’s hard to imagine what that ‘constraint’ was, other than a personal/politically motivated view that the exchange rate should be lower. You’re right that a string a bad forecasts doesn’t automatically imply policy failure, but I think it was pretty clear even at the time that the Reserve Bank was consciously stepping outside the bounds of its price stability mandate.
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