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Comments on: SMBC desribes macroeconomic forecasting http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/08/07/smbc-desribes-macroeconomic-forecasting/ The Visible Hand in Economics Wed, 07 Aug 2013 09:39:37 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/08/07/smbc-desribes-macroeconomic-forecasting/#comment-41770 Wed, 07 Aug 2013 05:18:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=9365#comment-41770 In reply to Paul Walker.

Indeed – and even in that context, what do we really mean by better! Good fun 🙂

]]> By: Paul Walker http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/08/07/smbc-desribes-macroeconomic-forecasting/#comment-41769 Wed, 07 Aug 2013 04:13:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=9365#comment-41769 The question isn’t, are economists forecasts right all the time, rather it is are economists forecasts better than other people’s forecasts.

]]> By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/08/07/smbc-desribes-macroeconomic-forecasting/#comment-41768 Wed, 07 Aug 2013 01:32:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=9365#comment-41768 In reply to Shamubeel Eaqub.

As I also work in forecasting, I prefer to call forecasting helping to conceptualise risks – and view it as a way to use disparate information to aid in building an understanding of risks to aid planning. The numbers are meaningless without a story and a clear explanation that it is both conditional and not necessarily “objective truth”.

I get worried that people think we can just use data, and forecasting models as a definite way to find “truth” – the problems of induction aye!

]]> By: Shamubeel Eaqub http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/08/07/smbc-desribes-macroeconomic-forecasting/#comment-41767 Wed, 07 Aug 2013 01:09:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=9365#comment-41767 Love it. The obsession with forecasting is understandable, but only as an expectations setting/planning device. I had the request today to forecast the current and house prices. A ready supply of eye-of-newt apparently would have helped…

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