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Comments on: LVR restrictions bite http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/11/11/lvr-restrictions-bite/ The Visible Hand in Economics Tue, 19 Nov 2013 10:04:00 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: Michael http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/11/11/lvr-restrictions-bite/#comment-42482 Tue, 19 Nov 2013 10:04:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=10342#comment-42482 Hello Shamubeel. I am going to change tack slightly as I’d like to ask you a question. In the Dominion Post of 9 Nov 2013 on page C2 you are quoted as offering high praise for National’s fiscal management, saying you think that the Government’s fiscal management has helped the economy. But I am confused because on the same page is a list of statistics which paint a very poor picture of National’s performance after 5 years, with debt very high, the gap between income from the tradeable sector and the non-tradeable sector widening since 2008, unemployment up from 2008, worsening income inequality, and so on and on – and this without even mentioning the social and environmental cost of their policies. It seems to be disaster on all fronts. So what are they getting right? I can’t understand how such a catastrophic record gets portrayed as a success when Labour’s record, from 1999 to 2008, so much rosier, attracted no such praise? I am not a Labour supporter, but a confused citizen, as I
see such a disconnect between reality, if that is what is portrayed by those figures, and the supportive comments of some economists (but not all, eg Rod Oram).

It mystifies me, I hope you can explain. Thanks.

]]> By: Miguel Sanchez http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/11/11/lvr-restrictions-bite/#comment-42446 Mon, 11 Nov 2013 09:14:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=10342#comment-42446 So a quantitative restriction restricts quantity. Is this not a rather trivial finding? Was there anyone you’d take seriously who was saying this wouldn’t happen?

]]> By: boristhefrog http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/11/11/lvr-restrictions-bite/#comment-42445 Mon, 11 Nov 2013 07:17:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=10342#comment-42445 Better question – how much of the mortgage approvals actually relate to house buying vs refinancing? Because if you go back a couple of years mortgage approvals were rising quickly but house sales weren’t…

I would expect the Nov house sales data to be quite weak seasonally adjusted as the pre-approvals should have washed out of the system by then… but we will have to wait and see…

]]> By: Shamubeel Eaqub http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/11/11/lvr-restrictions-bite/#comment-42444 Sun, 10 Nov 2013 20:44:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=10342#comment-42444 In reply to Matt Nolan.

We will find out soon enough Matt! I reckon the trend was already down, but there was a post announcement surge. The down trend has deepened because there is now a quantitative restriction in place.

]]> By: Matt Nolan http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/11/11/lvr-restrictions-bite/#comment-42443 Sun, 10 Nov 2013 20:25:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=10342#comment-42443 My main question is, did the LVR restrictions lead to an earlier surge that has abated – implying there was a falling trend in approvals prior to RBNZ action. Or was the mid-year drop base effect.

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