I think there is value is some heuristics given issues of knowledge, such as incrementalism and harm minimisation.

But for the big stuff, the time building understanding is important. I have no doubt in public policy classes they have a far better grasp on this trade-off than I do!

Definitely a huge question and I agree that it will be years before we figure it out. Unfortunately, there is money to be made coming up with answers now!

Yar, the recession years are an interesting different case – is it hysteresis, is it a temporary shortfall, has there been a fundamental reallocation of the return on different products (and the interest rate).

My impression is that question is even bigger in the UK – but when it comes to thinking about the TOT it is pretty important here as well.

We likely won’t know until well after it is over!

There’s a similar problem in the UK at the moment where people are unsure how to explain the recent fall in productivity. Of course, it turns out that everyone’s personal hobby horse is the answer to the puzzle. Really, it just shows how reluctant most people are to say that they don’t know.