We seem to be on the same page – you say it well!

Exactly, I also cannot see how you can derive a system of ethics or a purpose to life, or government, solely from data. You need the underlying values. Of course, data can sometimes shed new light on values.

Interestingly, Sir Peter Gluckman has apparently moved away from evidence based policy to evidence informed policy. The difference being, while evidence is used to show the likely effects of policies, ultimately the decision has to be made based on explicit values.

Evidence is an aid, but not a substitute for the decisions society has to make about values. Evidence cannot make the decision for you.

Indeed. The first question to cross my mind with any policy announcement is “what are they trying to achieve?”

All too often I am frustrated by the lack of detail provided by the policy makers whether they be politicians or governmental bodies. In the end, I have to draw the conclusion that it not so much achieving a properly defined objective that drives policy but to be seen to be doing something (however vaguely couched) that, as you say, wins votes.

The inductive inferences we make to connect a theory and data are really hard things to work on – really hard. Without an open discussion of theory we can’t do that. I suspect that many people who act like data is king simply don’t recognise the magnitude of this problem!

It is true that politicians are not keen on it – that isn’t their prerogative, they are trying to win votes after all. But if people “outside” of politics want to analyse these things they need to do it in a way that makes ideology open for all to see. Solely doing data anlaysis without proper problem definition doesn’t do this – as you say.

It always struck me that this problem definition is a key part of the way policies should be determined.

But they aren’t. Or at least it never seems to be. Politicians seem to rarely specify the issues they believe are being addressed. Instead we get vague statements like making the system more efficient or giving children s better education blah blah blah.

Being the cynic I am I know that specifying the problem means not only greater ability to measure if the policy works but also lays bare the ideology (we all have one, mine’s called Horace) behind it. Neither of which politicians are keen on, IMO.