Maybe we should just remove numbers and talk about feelings – how does inflation make you feel?

Can’t misreport something with no content 😉

The problem is that dumbass media would report, for instance, inflation of 1.5% as being “good news” as it was below the forecast of 2% (or 1% if rounding down).

(Moreover, inflation is a good example of one measure where single digit decimal places probably are appropriate as forecasts tend to be pretty close.)

I wonder if not using decimal places would actually make the forecasts more useful – giving less of the “myth” of accuracy, and promoting their use in a more qualitative way (or at least a risk balancing way).

The goal of the DDP movement is to reduce the use of decimal places in economic forecasts by 10% each year for the next 10 years.

We expect the use of decimal places in forecasts by the end of 2021 will be 65.1% lower than…BUGGER!

Treasury’s forecasts were below what happened for a good number of years, and now they’ve been above what happened for a good number of years.  Overall in terms of the “medium-long term level of economic activity” they have been both incredibly consistent and accurate – it is the size and scope of cycles that has been hard to deal with.

In this context, Treasury’s forecasts which are used to ascertain whether the government budget is sustainable into the medium-long term are doing exactly what you would want 😉

Treasury budget forecasts, after 10 years of being frequently wrong by large margins, are considered by many to be inaccurate and unreliable.

Assuming that is true, are the Treasury’s budget forecasts nevertheless useful?