Notice: Function _load_textdomain_just_in_time was called incorrectly. Translation loading for the jetpack domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /mnt/stor08-wc1-ord1/694335/916773/www.tvhe.co.nz/web/content/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6131

Notice: Function _load_textdomain_just_in_time was called incorrectly. Translation loading for the updraftplus domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /mnt/stor08-wc1-ord1/694335/916773/www.tvhe.co.nz/web/content/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6131

Notice: Function _load_textdomain_just_in_time was called incorrectly. Translation loading for the avia_framework domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /mnt/stor08-wc1-ord1/694335/916773/www.tvhe.co.nz/web/content/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6131

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /mnt/stor08-wc1-ord1/694335/916773/www.tvhe.co.nz/web/content/wp-includes/functions.php:6131) in /mnt/stor08-wc1-ord1/694335/916773/www.tvhe.co.nz/web/content/wp-includes/feed-rss2-comments.php on line 8
Comments on: Economic forecasters aren’t all that bad http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2014/03/07/economic-forecasters-arent-all-that-bad/ The Visible Hand in Economics Fri, 07 Mar 2014 11:23:00 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 By: jamesz http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2014/03/07/economic-forecasters-arent-all-that-bad/#comment-42807 Fri, 07 Mar 2014 11:23:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=11036#comment-42807 In reply to VMC.

I agree that the big difference between economic and weather forecasters is that only one of them changes the future. It makes forecasting major catastrophes kinda tricky!

]]> By: Kimble http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2014/03/07/economic-forecasters-arent-all-that-bad/#comment-42804 Fri, 07 Mar 2014 00:53:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=11036#comment-42804 In reply to VMC.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paragraph

]]> By: VMC http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2014/03/07/economic-forecasters-arent-all-that-bad/#comment-42803 Thu, 06 Mar 2014 22:01:00 +0000 http://www.tvhe.co.nz/?p=11036#comment-42803 I am thinking you posted this to provoke a little debate, so here goes. There are many aspects to a weather forecast such as will it rain? if it will rain, how much?, what will the max, or min, temperature be? etc etc. And then there are follow up questions such as how close is close enough to regarded as “accurate”? And then there are also questions about how far out are we interested in, a day or two, or maybe a week or two. I note that the UK met service claims to be: 94% accurate with forecasting max temperatures a day ahead, and 90% 2 days ahead; 84% accurate at forecasting minimum temperatures; and 94% accurate at forecasting temperature. They publish their accuracy forecasts and have them audited. (Sounds like a good idea to me). But I suspect that the main issue for most ordinary people is whether the weather forecaster predicts abnormal events that might cause real mischief if left un-forecast (such as snow for farmers, etc). My sense is that NZ forecasters do pretty well here, even if they dont always predict the exact amount of rain we will get they generally let us know in advance that a flood is likely. And I also think that its here that economic forecaster fall short. While some people did forecast disaster ahead of the GFC, they tended not to be mainstream economists. Not sure if you have seen “Inside Job” (its a great documentary, BTW) – but it would suggest that a number of academic economists were actually complicit in what happened. And its here that I think weather forecasters have a natural advantage over economic forecasters – an economic forecast might actually affect the economy while a weather forecast never can!

]]>