Economists get a lot of criticism for failing to polish their crystal balls thoroughly enough before reading the economy. So how good are people forecasting other complex systems? Physicist types. Real Scientists. Let’s ask a weather forecaster how accurate their forecasts are a couple of days out. Days, not months, quarters, or years.
…if our forecasts are about 60 percent accurate or higher, then we consider that to be a good estimate.
Well, that’s slightly better than flipping a coin.