How did our 2023 forecasts go?
At the close of 2022, Gulnara and I thought it would be fun to pop up some forecasts for 2023. So what were they and how did we do?
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The forecasts
It appears we made four forecasts:
- That the “rebalancing towards consumption” in China would dominate the discussion post-COVID economic adjustment – making it harder to bring inflation down in a low cost manner and keeping tradable inflation high.
- Automation would be a major theme – with a clear visual number of worker tasks across a number of jobs now being clearly automated.
- Industry policy would be the go to policy lever pointed at given the two above economic themes.
- However, there would also be increasing discussion of unemployment benefits – and the importance of the safety net for supporting these transitions.
Right, nice consistent story – two changes in the underlying economy, two policy responses.
How did we do? I’m going to self-evaluate – but super keen for everyone elses thoughts in the comments!
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