How did our 2023 forecasts go?

Cross posted on Substack.

At the close of 2022, Gulnara and I thought it would be fun to pop up some forecasts for 2023. So what were they and how did we do?

The forecasts

It appears we made four forecasts:

  1. That the “rebalancing towards consumption” in China would dominate the discussion post-COVID economic adjustment – making it harder to bring inflation down in a low cost manner and keeping tradable inflation high.
  2. Automation would be a major theme – with a clear visual number of worker tasks across a number of jobs now being clearly automated.
  3. Industry policy would be the go to policy lever pointed at given the two above economic themes.
  4. However, there would also be increasing discussion of unemployment benefits – and the importance of the safety net for supporting these transitions.

Right, nice consistent story – two changes in the underlying economy, two policy responses.

How did we do? I’m going to self-evaluate – but super keen for everyone elses thoughts in the comments!

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Anti-trust articles: Fintech and 5G

One of the founding authors and editors of TVHE has a couple of cool anti-trust articles up for the Anti-Trust writing awards. I reckon we should go an give them some support. Will Taylor notes this on LinkedIn here – but if that doesn’t work for you the link to the voting for the two articles is here.



The voting is for the “reader choice” award – you can vote towards the bottom of each of these links.

Go give them a read – I definitely learned a thing or two. Anti-trust stuff is complex, but getting this right is incredibly important – and industrial economics is definitely the topic that “feels” most like real economics, with its mix of theory, application, data.

Happy Valentine’s Day: Economics and the nature of a gift

Happy Valentine’s Day everyone, from Gulnara and myself. To celebrate we’ve put up a video characterising two different ways of thinking about gift giving – specifically the conflict between telling someone what gift you want and the nature of a surprise gift.

People think and feel very differently about this, and fair enough we all have different preferences and have been raised in different gifting cultures (influencing the type of signal a gift is).

However, by thinking about why someone may feel differently about a gift allows us all to understand these different perspectives – as they say, economics is the path to tolerance, acceptance, and ultimately love.

We would love to hear how you think about both giving and receiving presents – what have we missed?

Book review: Time for Socialism

Hi all – below is the text version of our book review of Thomas Piketty’s “Time for Socialism“. The video can be found here. Would be keen for thoughts, and if there are other books people want reviewed.

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Video: What can we do with GDP

Hey team,

I realised that a lot of the videos going up presuppose knowledge about what GDP is and what the purpose of GDP is – but after hearing another series of people baselessly criticise GDP I realised that assuming this knowledge isn’t really the best place to start.

So I popped a video up at the start of the “Data and Aggregates” playlist that is just about what the point of GDP is.

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Video: Leaky buckets and inequality

Today’s video is on Okun’s leaky bucket – a metaphor that is used to describe how we would think about a trade-off between transfer resources and the total number of resources.

Such a metaphor for considering this trade-off is useful – but as Matt has noted in the past we should be very very cautious about overinterpreting this example when looking at real economic data. Hence why I got him to chat about that at the end.

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