Economists get a lot of criticism for failing to polish their crystal balls thoroughly enough before reading the economy. So how good are people forecasting other complex systems? Physicist types. Real Scientists. Let’s ask a weather forecaster how accurate their forecasts are a couple of days out. Days, not months, quarters, or years. …if our […]
Author Archive for: jamesz
Entries by jamesz
I like the influence that physicists are having on economics. Moving towards agent-based modelling in some areas of the discipline is a great idea. But, in addition to lending their novel insights, some seem to enjoy piling on economics generally. Generally you have to take the good with the bad but Mark Buchanan’s latest article […]
On being challenged over an evasive answer in a Committee hearing, Carney quips: I didn’t get to my position by being overly precise when I didn’t need to be. Yet bloggers spend much of their time proffering opinions on questions nobody is asking.
Yesterday the Fed pirouetted neatly, simultaneously beginning to taper its quantitative easing and suggesting that policy will not tighten until well beyond its guidance threshold for unemployment. The sum impact has been a loosening of policy but what interested me is the sequencing of its actions.
Christmas is a time when economists are wheeled out to proclaim the benefits of giving cash. Of course, we’re not really that out of touch as a discipline and The Atlantic has sought to set the record straight. Drawing on the wealth of economists’ writing on gifts and relationships it has created some heart-warming cards […]
Those who are too smart to engage in politics are punished by being governed by those who are dumber. Economists like to think they’re above politics and deal only with positive questions. Is that really much of a boast?