New Zealand’s labour market recovery in ‘ONE CHART’

I hate one chart posts.  No that was too weak, I despise single chart posts.  But given that I am under the thumb of greater forces than myself (my thesis, my job) I have decided to do one.

So what is this chart that tells us about the NZ labour market recovery?  It is actually a chart neatly provided by Statistics New Zealand in their release of the labour market data:

Cheers Statistics New Zealand! (Note, initially the wrong graph had shown up, unemployment – it should be employment rates)

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Can physicists please look at a basic textbook before releasing these things

FFS, this is probably the worst example of a physicist treating economists like idiots, and saying something both meaningless and already known, that I’ve seen for a while (via Marginal Revolution). Read more

Discussion Tuesday

From Lew on Twitter:

Discuss!

Inward migration: A story of no-one wanting to leave

I endorse this post by Aaron Schiff – go read it.

You will also notice in the above chart that over the past ten years the number of arrivals has been relatively steady with a slight upwards trend, while departures is more volatile. Thus temporary spikes in net migration seem to be caused more often by changes in the number of people leaving rather than arriving, although the recent spike has been caused by both sides of the equation.

Something I would note here is that, until recently, this has been largely a story of New Zealander’s coming home as well.  Finally:

We should celebrate because on the incoming side, skilled immigrants provide New Zealand with a significant free gift. Some other country has paid the cost of their birth, childcare, childhood medical care, education, etc. They turn up in New Zealand effectively bringing all that investment with them and this benefits the country. Sounds good to me.

Something I would note here – it is a strange contradiction complaining about a brain drain while bemoaning skilled migrants moving here.

Deep down we should be a little bit more careful thinking about both issues.  People are moving as they see it as being in the long-run interest of their family and their lives – in that way, why is it so hard for us to accept that NZer’s may want to spend some time overseas, and that non-NZ citizens may want to join our community?

Global corporations, price discrimination, and NZ

I see that there is a new paper out discussing the fact that both tradable and non-tradable prices in New Zealand are “high” relative to what people are paying around the rest of the world.  I am used to the argument about non-tradable prices being high RELATIVE to tradable prices, but the tradable price argument is a bit of a fun twist on it all.

Eric Crampton has summarised the results, and Patrick Nolan from the Productivity Commission has had a chat about it.  Update: Donal has a couple of posts here and here.

My intention was to argue with them, especially Patrick as he is my brother.  But everything they wrote, and what I’ve read of the paper, was entirely reasonable – so I’d suggest reading those yourself 😉

Instead I will “add value” by making an unsubstantiated claim that may ad hocly explain this from the paper:

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‘Communist’ isn’t the cat call it used to be

I see Kiwiblog cat calling the Labour party as Communist, because it wants to have a bunch of policy settings that are seen as either common or at least admissible nowadays – but were revolutionary in the mid-nineteenth century.

I honestly don’t see the point in doing this.  The Cold War is over now, and both social and physical scientists are finally getting free of the constraints inherited from that period.  To say that the Cold War constrained and influenced the debate on what to research, and the rhetoric to use, would be an understatement.  Just read a biography on scientists during the period (eg Lakatos), or listen to an interview where Piketty talks about his willingness to discuss trends in capital to output ratios – with the Cold War open we can have a more open and honest discussion on trade-offs.

Honestly, calling someone out as Communist nowadays means as much as calling them Nazi, I can’t help but ignore whatever is being said.  This is a pity, as inherent in the extremes of Nazism and Communism were negative attributes that can easily be underplayed in policy – ignoring the agency, and value, of the individual.  Instead of cat calling, it is probably better to make arguments along this line 😉

Here  I am not trying to say we can’t disagree with social policies, I’m just saying it is possible to do so on merit.  This is why the discussions about trade-offs, and the limits to knowledge, are what matters.  Furthermore, collectivist thinking is not solely the domain of obvious social policy, but other views that may seem right of centre.  Thinking about trade-offs makes this clearer.

Now, my impression is that social scientists and economists had it a bit better than physical scientists – a lot of economists had Communist sympathies, and fell in love with the managerialist command and control nature of policy.  Furthermore, they saw themselves as these (high status) managers.  This would be a trend that is of genuine concern as it would involve managerialism and valuing the individual as a unit (or production or health), rather than through their capability to live a good life.  These arguments deserve thought, not cheeky political gamesmanship!