According to Tony Arthur at BNZ we should be. This is an essential issue for NZ as it determines where our Terms of Trade stays elevated – or whether it falls. In turn it determines our national income, given what we produce.
I agree with many of the factors he states (although he is a bit bullish on them) but I think he ignores factors around the long run elasticity of supply of food. So I thought I’d try a poll (my first one 🙂 ), and do a post based on discussing the dominant view later: