The Reserve Bank of Australia cut 100 basis points last night taking the cash rate to 4.25% – well into easing territory.
A feeling that global commodity prices were in for a sustained lower period was a driving force behind this stimulus. Surprisingly the Reserve Bank of Australia did not mention to enormous decline in fuel prices – however, there suggestion that the terms of trade would fall markedly implicitly suggests that the decline in petrol prices will be dominated by other factors.
What does this mean for New Zealand – a rule of thumb stemming from cuts so far (Aussie cut + 25) would suggest 125bp. 100 is still conceivable, as is 150. My pick of 75 now seems incredibly unlikely. Note, further discussion of the decision occurs in the comments of this post 🙂
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