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Jan
26
2009

Market panic: Should we trust it?

Mark Perry at Carpe Diem has an excellent post comparing the 1991/92 recession to the current recession in terms of “media reporting”.

As he illustrates in his post, the constant comparisons to the Great Depression also occurred during this time – even though for the US it was a relatively mild recession.

Although I am a little more pessimistic about the current outlook for economic growth than Mark Perry is, I agree with his point, and think that it is especially relevant to today – there is often an incentive for people to exaggerate the severity of a crisis (to sell papers, or extract surplus from government).  As a result, instead of just buying the hype, economic commentators should try to keep in mind what is fundamentally going on – whatever you think that is ;)

In terms of New Zealand we should also remember that 1991/92 was a terrible recession – unemployment reach 12% and average income (according to the GNDI) fell 10%.  Even a repeat of this type of recession is a cause of concern for us here in little old NZ.

About the author

Matt Nolan

Matt Nolan is an economist at Infometrics (although the opinions expressed are independent of the organisation) . Email: nolan.matt@gmail.com; matt@infometrics.co.nz. Work phone: 04-496-5290

Permanent link to this article: http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/01/26/market-panic-should-we-trust-it/

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