My unequivocal answer here would be yes – but I’m not asking me, I’m asking you.
Do you guys think that economists have been over-confident about their ability to predict things?
We have repeatedly said on this blog that economic science “frames issues” – but predictions only stem from virtually untestable value judgments (although we can inform these, and narrow the band of judgments, by using data).
However, it appears that many economists have tried to sell their ability to predict – something that has caused issues.
This blog post really sums up how I think people think about economists right now (ht Market Movers). I think the issue is that economists have sold this story to the public about their ability to predict – an ability that doesn’t exist. The risk from this is that the value that economists can add (framing issues, even describing what has happened) may get ignored as a result of this perceived failure.