I agree that long-term mortgage rates look a bit vulnerable – if I had a mortgage the 5 year rate at 6.49% would be pretty tempting. Still, I’m no expert (I’m barely an amateur) at picking mortgage rates, so I wouldn’t do anything on this speculation.
Still, there is one thing I don’t agree with in this post – his determination to bag the retail banks. Roger makes it sound like bank forecasters and the RBNZ have a massively different view. However, both expect a sharp bounceback – the main difference is “timing”. Fundamentally, retail banks expect it to be 6-12 months later than the RBNZ does.
This graph from ANZ illustrates the point well (found here under 12th March 2009):