iPredict just added a “return on investment” ranking – so that we can see who made the most out of their limited capital.
Although I am not on the list (Note: I wonder why, was my initial investment too low to be included?), I noticed that “Economist” is number 1. Furthermore, I’m relatively sure that the person currently in 3rd place is an economist.
Constantly economists are put down for their lack of forecasting ability – however they seem to be doing pretty well when their is money on the line 
Update: The next day it was updated to include Goonix and myself. Goonix is 8th, and I’m 19th. I wasn’t involved in the election trading though so I’m not taking this as evidence of me being the worst economist 
14 comments
2 pings
goonix says:
May 19, 2009 at 2:55 pm (UTC 12 )
I would have been 6th had I not withdrawn most of the profit a couple of months back.
Matt Nolan says:
May 19, 2009 at 2:57 pm (UTC 12 )
@goonix
I was under the impression that the included withdrawals in the return. I heard the equation was:
ROI=(Current portfolio + withdrawls – deposits)/deposits
goonix says:
May 19, 2009 at 3:05 pm (UTC 12 )
Well I think there is something seriously wrong with the calculator then!
Matt Nolan says:
May 19, 2009 at 3:07 pm (UTC 12 )
I’m also ranked 426 – even though my ROI would be substantially higher. Supposedly they only included people who put in $20 or more. However, I put in exactly $20 – so it must be people whose initial investment was over $20.
goonix says:
May 19, 2009 at 3:08 pm (UTC 12 )
Ah that makes sense.
Matt Nolan says:
May 19, 2009 at 3:23 pm (UTC 12 )
@goonix
Well your ROI kicks mine – I would only be about 14th on the current list.
However, I didn’t start till after the election and I started off losing money when I had to put my money where my mouth was – and I was wrong:
http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2008/11/27/picks-for-the-december-rbnz-meeting/
So I’m still happy
Matt Nolan says:
May 19, 2009 at 3:29 pm (UTC 12 )
@goonix
From the forum:
https://www.ipredict.co.nz/Main.php?do=forum&page=read.php%253F1%252C1300%252C1310%2523msg-1310
“Economist, currently its > 20 but we’re going to switch to >=20, on the assumption that $20 is a frequent first deposit amount (I haven’t checked if it is).”
So you will soon be up there goonix
goonix says:
May 19, 2009 at 5:14 pm (UTC 12 )
I imagine a lot of others will be too soon then!
Eric Crampton says:
May 20, 2009 at 2:58 am (UTC 12 )
My ROI was great ’till I spend everything chasing a 20% gain on the climate stocks rather than saving it to earn returns elsewhere. That price being so out of what unduly offended me.
Matt Nolan says:
May 20, 2009 at 1:55 pm (UTC 12 )
@goonix
Indeed!!
Matt Nolan says:
May 20, 2009 at 1:56 pm (UTC 12 )
@Eric Crampton
Understandable – there is pleasure in putting your money where your mouth is which isn’t recorded in the ROI measure
goonix says:
May 20, 2009 at 2:23 pm (UTC 12 )
Ahhh much better.
Matt Nolan says:
May 20, 2009 at 2:24 pm (UTC 12 )
@goonix
Indeed
Good to see we are included now 
Luke H says:
May 22, 2009 at 11:26 pm (UTC 12 )
I’m in a similar boat guys – I made a bit of money during the election off a $250 deposit and then withdrew everything.
Months later, I deposited a similar amount of money and started trading again, following a somewhat different strategy. Counting just that deposit, my ROI would be about 1040%, more than double what it is counting my election trading.
So it would be nice if you could reset the calculation if your account balance goes to zero, but that would be a bit iffy as well I s’pose. Just the way the cookie crumbles …
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