New Zealand budget 2009: Downgrade alert?

From a member of S&P, Mr Curry:

It is hard to put a timing on it, but we would expect that over the cycle of the Government [it] would be recording operating surpluses within, I guess, the next three to five years.

So that is the requirement to avoid a downgrade.

From the government:

Asked if surpluses could be achieved in five years, Key it might take longer.

Hmmmm.  Thursday will be very very interesting.

(ht Nigel Pinkerton for the pointer to these quotes)

  • Miguel Sanchez

    Is that the requirement to avoid a downgrade, or the requirement to get back to a stable outlook? Kyran Curry’s comments are as clear as mud I’m afraid.

  • @Miguel Sanchez

    Agreed that his comments are about as clear as mud.

    However, my impression is that we aren’t going to stay on negative outlook for very long. S&P is in a proactive mood – they are trying to remove uncertainty by just getting credit ratings sorted. They will either cut us down, or take us off negative watch – as a result avoiding a downgrade or getting back to stable requires the same thing.

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