From a member of S&P, Mr Curry:
It is hard to put a timing on it, but we would expect that over the cycle of the Government [it] would be recording operating surpluses within, I guess, the next three to five years.
So that is the requirement to avoid a downgrade.
From the government:
Asked if surpluses could be achieved in five years, Key it might take longer.
Hmmmm. Thursday will be very very interesting.
(ht Nigel Pinkerton for the pointer to these quotes)
2 comments
1 ping
Miguel Sanchez says:
May 25, 2009 at 4:11 pm (UTC 12 )
Is that the requirement to avoid a downgrade, or the requirement to get back to a stable outlook? Kyran Curry’s comments are as clear as mud I’m afraid.
Matt Nolan says:
May 25, 2009 at 4:15 pm (UTC 12 )
@Miguel Sanchez
Agreed that his comments are about as clear as mud.
However, my impression is that we aren’t going to stay on negative outlook for very long. S&P is in a proactive mood – they are trying to remove uncertainty by just getting credit ratings sorted. They will either cut us down, or take us off negative watch – as a result avoiding a downgrade or getting back to stable requires the same thing.
TVHE » New Zealand budget 2009: Is increasing GST the solution? says:
May 27, 2009 at 12:05 pm (UTC 12 )
[...] New Zealand we are currently concerned about a downgrade from S&P. They want us to be running operating surpluses from 2014, and we aren’t quite sure how to [...]