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May
25
2009

New Zealand budget 2009: Downgrade alert?

From a member of S&P, Mr Curry:

It is hard to put a timing on it, but we would expect that over the cycle of the Government [it] would be recording operating surpluses within, I guess, the next three to five years.

So that is the requirement to avoid a downgrade.

From the government:

Asked if surpluses could be achieved in five years, Key it might take longer.

Hmmmm.  Thursday will be very very interesting.

(ht Nigel Pinkerton for the pointer to these quotes)

About the author

Matt Nolan

Matt Nolan is an economist at Infometrics (although the opinions expressed are independent of the organisation) . Email: nolan.matt@gmail.com; matt@infometrics.co.nz. Work phone: 04-496-5290

Permanent link to this article: http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/05/25/new-zealand-budget-2009-downgrade-alert/

2 comments

1 ping

  1. Miguel Sanchez says:

    Is that the requirement to avoid a downgrade, or the requirement to get back to a stable outlook? Kyran Curry’s comments are as clear as mud I’m afraid.

  2. Matt Nolan says:

    @Miguel Sanchez

    Agreed that his comments are about as clear as mud.

    However, my impression is that we aren’t going to stay on negative outlook for very long. S&P is in a proactive mood – they are trying to remove uncertainty by just getting credit ratings sorted. They will either cut us down, or take us off negative watch – as a result avoiding a downgrade or getting back to stable requires the same thing.

  1. TVHE » New Zealand budget 2009: Is increasing GST the solution? says:

    [...] New Zealand we are currently concerned about a downgrade from S&P.  They want us to be running operating surpluses from 2014, and we aren’t quite sure how to [...]

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