I haven’t picked a number yet. I’m going 6.1% (seasonally adjusted). I know, that is a huge increase on 5% in March, and it would take us past Australia’s 5.8% rate. But unless I see the unemployment rate really moving then I don’t see this recession as (relatively) all that serious.
Lots of people are picking 5.5%, median pick is 5.7% (I think), RBNZ has 5.8% 5.9%. If it is under 5.5% then it is one hell of a strong result. If it is over 5.8% the market won’t be very happy. If it is over 6.1% I will be extremely confused.
Let’s see what happens.