June 09 unemployment pick

I haven’t picked a number yet.  I’m going 6.1% (seasonally adjusted).  I know, that is a huge increase on 5% in March, and it would take us past Australia’s 5.8% rate.  But unless I see the unemployment rate really moving then I don’t see this recession as (relatively) all that serious.

Lots of people are picking 5.5%, median pick is 5.7% (I think), RBNZ has 5.8% 5.9%.  If it is under 5.5% then it is one hell of a strong result.  If it is over 5.8% the market won’t be very happy.  If it is over 6.1% I will be extremely confused.

Let’s see what happens.

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  • “But unless I see the unemployment rate really moving then I don’t see this recession as (relatively) all that serious.”

    You’re right in putting the word “relatively”. You may not feel it in NZ, but in other countries the impact is so dramatic.