GDP is out later today, and there are calls from some that growth turned positive again in June.
While a mild bounce-back from the sharp March 09 fall is conceivable in of itself I’m not sure if I buy it. Partial indicators have still been poor and the NZIER QSBO was still incredibly weak for the June quarter.
Personally, I would not be surprised seeing a moderate contraction for June above what the market is picking (currently a 0.2% fall).
Of course, the more concerning factor for me will be the sharp decline in RGNDI – which is a far better indicator of the true cost of the recession than GDP.
6 comments
2 pings
Fairfacts Media
September 23, 2009 at 8:13 pm (UTC 12)
That’s a very good analysis there.
I have just posted on the matter too.
I believe GDP per capita counts more.
It’s not just about the size of the cake but also how many people are seeking a piece.
Fairfacts Media
September 23, 2009 at 8:14 pm (UTC 12)
well more than GDP in total.
Disposable income also is important.
I see little sign of improvement here, though cheese is getting cheaper!
Matt Nolan
September 24, 2009 at 2:31 pm (UTC 12)
@Fairfacts Media
@Fairfacts Media
Indeed, per capita is more important, and that is still falling. And yes, what we can actually do with that production is more important again – hence why RGNDI is a better indicator
fibby
September 29, 2009 at 12:44 pm (UTC 12)
Misuse of “begs the question” in your Dom Post article. It should have been “raises the question”. Lose one million points, do not pass Go, do not achieve NCEA Level 1 language skills.
Matt Nolan
September 29, 2009 at 12:54 pm (UTC 12)
@fibby
Incorrect – but common usage.
At least it added more value than your comment mate
fibby
September 29, 2009 at 1:42 pm (UTC 12)
Common, in both senses of the word
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