GDP is out later today, and there are calls from some that growth turned positive again in June.
While a mild bounce-back from the sharp March 09 fall is conceivable in of itself I’m not sure if I buy it. Partial indicators have still been poor and the NZIER QSBO was still incredibly weak for the June quarter.
Personally, I would not be surprised seeing a moderate contraction for June above what the market is picking (currently a 0.2% fall).
Of course, the more concerning factor for me will be the sharp decline in RGNDI – which is a far better indicator of the true cost of the recession than GDP.