Did we have positive growth in June?

GDP is out later today, and there are calls from some that growth turned positive again in June.

While a mild bounce-back from the sharp March 09 fall is conceivable in of itself I’m not sure if I buy it.  Partial indicators have still been poor and the NZIER QSBO was still incredibly weak for the June quarter.

Personally, I would not be surprised seeing a moderate contraction for June above what the market is picking (currently a 0.2% fall).

Of course, the more concerning factor for me will be the sharp decline in RGNDI – which is a far better indicator of the true cost of the recession than GDP.

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  • That’s a very good analysis there.
    I have just posted on the matter too.
    I believe GDP per capita counts more.
    It’s not just about the size of the cake but also how many people are seeking a piece.

  • well more than GDP in total.
    Disposable income also is important.
    I see little sign of improvement here, though cheese is getting cheaper!

  • @Fairfacts Media

    @Fairfacts Media

    Indeed, per capita is more important, and that is still falling. And yes, what we can actually do with that production is more important again – hence why RGNDI is a better indicator 🙂

  • Misuse of “begs the question” in your Dom Post article. It should have been “raises the question”. Lose one million points, do not pass Go, do not achieve NCEA Level 1 language skills.

  • @fibby

    Incorrect – but common usage.

    At least it added more value than your comment mate 😉

  • Common, in both senses of the word 😛