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I’d just like to say thanks to the people who turned up to the presentation in Auckland on Friday, I hope you had as much fun as I did! Everyone that was there had interesting points and questions, so I thought it was just great.
I will be doing the same thing in Wellington on Saturday – I will pop up more details closer to the time.
Next week I’ll also get the slides online for anyone who is interested but couldn’t make it along 😉
I’ve just been playing around on the OECD stats site to keep abreast of relevant global economic data. While I was there I decided to have a look at some ratios of consumption to gdp around the world, especially after realising how little my view on this and rebalancing in New Zealand has not changed in the past two and a half years.
So here are some graphs comparing us to some of our Anglo-Saxon relatives:
Nominal consumption to GDP
Real consumption to GDP (so doesn’t account for relative price changes)
That really puts the idea that we have been spending “too much on too many consumable goods” in perspective … actually, I find it hard to believe how stable private spending out of current income has been in NZ.
Hi all,
I will be doing a presentation for the blogging community this Friday in Auckland. It will be at 3pm, and we will be meeting up at the MORE FM reception on Level 2, 239 Ponsonby Rd.
During the presentation I’ll cover the follow:
During question time, and at the bar afterwards, I will also be available to talk about anything … as long as its economics related.
I’d love to see you guys there to discuss these issues with me.
With that election thing finally out of our hair, we can focus on the fact that things aren’t looking good out there.
Krugman puts up a nice illustration of how this really is the fault of the Euro. (It would help if creditors and debtors just accepted that they need to take a bit of a bath)
And markets are now picking rates in NZ to be lower in a year’s time. This is the extent of the positive news – again we are relying on European policy makers … I just don’t know if they deserve any trust anymore.
But, there is one thing I’ll give us here in NZ – a collapse of the Euro-zone isn’t necessarily going to be as bad for New Zealand as continuing uncertainty in financial markets. The key is what happens to growth in Asia (given that it accounts for so much more of our trade now), and for now our dollar is pointing to a reasonable outlook for commodity prices. But if there is anything we remember from September 2008 its that this can turn …
It would be completely unlivable. Seriously, it feels like 90% of people out there support a party – and determine whether a policy is “good” or “bad” solely on the basis that it is their party doing it. Is this election really any different to watching your local sports derby?
I mean, for the love of god partial asset sales appear to be the main theme coming into this election – one of the most incredibly marginal and unimportant issues I have ever laid eyes on. With no impact on competition (because it is minority stakes), and with little impact on the final cost of servicing spending either way (given that the lost dividends are only slightly lower than the expected interest payments on borrowing) this is a virtual non-issue. And yet, every single person I talk too cares STRONGLY one way or the other – for no reason that they can actually articulate.
Do people not think that “tribal politics” is inherently stupid – we should be debating what trade-offs we are willing to make as a society, and what we really feel is fair. Not trying to make it so “our boys” are in so we have “won” …
New Zealand, I am disappoint.
In the end it comes down to supply and demand. The Reserve Bank can only influence the demand side of the economy – and that with difficulty and a considerable lag. It can’t do anything about the supply side.
But Governments can.
Rather than insisting that it take employment into account when making interest rate decisions – as though it didn’t already – it would be more helpful for politicians to focus on policies that would, for instance, create a better match between the skills employers need and those job seekers have to offer.
Very good.