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58 search results for: prediction

1

Economics and science – careful with the prediction call

I see that Rosenberg has created a bit of an uproar in the economics community with his claims around economics (although the articles focus is macroeconomics) not being a science. Unlike other economists I think this is a good thing in terms of forcing economists to defend against the claim – however, like other economists […]

3

Data and prediction

Via Scott Sumner we saw the following article that mentions economic data and economic predictions.  The statements that stood out to me were: (Economic) predictions are, of course, the bread and butter of economic institutions. But can we believe them? In recent years, some economists have begun to express doubts over predictions made from huge […]

4

Mankiw is right again – this time on prediction

This time on how Economics as an academic discipline will not have to have the wholesale changes some peoples are suggesting. He is right when he says the focus of economists and economic teaching is not on prediction.  However, I would also say that economists HAVE sold the idea that they can predict when talking […]

5

Polls vs prediction markets

With the advent of iPredict, New Zealand has jumped on the prediction market bandwagon. But now a paper suggests that, for election results at least, polling data is more accurate than at least one popular trading market: The market price is superior to a naïve reading of the polls. For instance, if the incumbent leads […]

6

Unfortunate predictions?

David Farrar links to an article from 1 year ago – where economists were rather positive about the outlook for New Zealand. I was the same – I thought we would be out of a drought induced recession by September 2008. But things happened that we couldn’t foresee. Lehman brother’s collapse was the issue that […]